Former Australia Foreign Affairs Minister Bob Carr was not mincing his words this week, when describing the highly contentious AUKUS pact during a trip to Wellington.   

“It's pure bulls**t,” he told an audience of (mostly) Labour-aligned foreign affairs watchers.   

“I don't want to appal the diplomats present by using a vulgarism but it's pure bulls**t ....  pillar two is fragrant, methane-wrapped bulls**t.”  

The audience politely chuckled as Carr took flight in his criticism of the deal.   

And he wasn’t the only one lining up to take a swing.   

The Labour Party dusted off its red carpet to welcome back former Prime Minister Helen Clark to speak in opposition to the AUKUS deal.   

Former Tuvalu Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga also spoke at the seminar, organised by Labour in Parliament's Legislative Council Chamber on Thursday.  

As did current MPs David Parker, Phil Twyford, and Chris Hipkins.   

The event: AUKUS – which way for New Zealand? Seemingly answered that question within the first few minutes of the three-hour function.  

New Zealand should be running any which way away from AUKUS – at least according to the speakers.   

AUKUS is a multilateral agreement between the US, the UK and Australia with two distinct areas of focus – most often defined as pillar one, and pillar two.   

Pillar one sees Australia receiving nuclear-powered submarines from the US and the UK, in a bid to help shore up security in the Pacific Region.   

New Zealand wants nothing to do with this part of the agreement, given our long-held nuclear-free status.  

It’s pillar two that’s captured the Government’s attention.   

Pillar two is an agreement between member countries to share advanced military capabilities such as AI, quantum, and hypersonic technologies.  

Much more palatable for New Zealand, which is currently being assessed by Australian military officials as to whether we’re fit to join.   

But what’s palatable for New Zealand is leaving a sour taste in the mouth of the Chinese.   

Like a scorned lover, New Zealand’s flirting with AUKUS has caused some clear diplomatic friction.   

“AUKUS is a stark manifestation of Cold War mentality as it seeks to establish a nuclear-related exclusive military alliance that targets third parties,” the Chinese embassy said recently.   

“It will not make either the relevant parties or the wider region more secure.”  

That’s what they’ve said publicly.  

The tone behind closed doors is likely to be far less diplomatic -- which was the message Helen Clark was conveying this week.  

Carr’s profanity-laden comments grabbed the headlines, but Clark’s warnings were stark.   

New Zealand’s relationship with China has, by and large, been a good one.  

"We have managed this complex relationship, and we have done it on the basis of having some respect both ways. We have to keep doing that.   

“But our ability to navigate like that inevitably is compromised by signing up to something like AUKUS, given all the drum beats around it, it terms of who it’s really aimed at.”  

Who it’s aimed at, Clark argued, is clearly China.     

Her argument boils down to: You don’t want to piss off the Chinese, not when so many of our eggs are in their basket.   

Just look at what happened to Australia.  

After the then-Scott Morrison Government called for an independent investigation into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, China slapped trade sanctions on a number of Australian goods, such as wine, timber, and beef.  

There's concern New Zealand fully committing to joining AUKUS may lead to similar retaliation from China.  

This would be devastating to New Zealand’s economy, given our free-trade deal with the People’s Republic.   

Despite all this, the Prime Minister does not appear concerned.   

In fact, speaking to reporters in Southeast Asia this week, Luxon said when it comes to AUKUS, New Zealand can have its cake and eat it too.   

"We want to make sure we have security and peace within the region; we also want to make sure we have good economic interest and prosperity in the region.”  

Luxon’s yet to provide a convincing reason as to why he’s so optimistic he can walk this China tightrope so easily.  

And there’s fear the Prime Minister’s optimism is naïve. New Zealand is by no means immune from China’s wrath.   

If you’re a rowboat, you shouldn’t throw stones at warships.   

Luxon’s taking an awful risk in poking the dragon.