Nicola Willis has been around the dark arts of politics long enough not to get shoe-horned into playing the resignation card before she is even sworn in as a Cabinet Minister. 

But unfathomably – she fell for the cheapest trick in the book  - when a TVNZ Breakfast host asked her if she would resign if she couldn’t deliver tax cuts because the numbers in National’s plan did not add up. 

She played that one out by responding if National didn’t deliver tax reductions, “Yes, I would resign because we are making a commitment to the New Zealand people and we intend to keep it.” 

Note:  the soft shoe shuffle: Resign if the tax cuts timetabled for July 1, 2024 are not introduced. But not resign, if they fail to be delivered by the smorgasbord of measures that have been cobbled together to support the math of the tax cutting plan. 

In another era, that would fall into the “managed earnings” category. 

But will Treasury standup and ensure rigour in National’s fiscal blueprint if they have to push this programme through in a pre-Christmas mini-budget? Or, do they also feel vulnerable after Leader Chris Luxon’s comments about some public sector leaders not being up to the job? 

This is not simply about politics. 

The tax cuts package – geared to a so-called “squeezed middle” - has been costed at $14.6 billion over four years.  The aim is laudatory. 

But not so the measures that have been plucked out of what should have been contested air, to find revenue to fund the cuts. 

Two issues stand out. 

First, plundering the Climate Emergency Response Fund (or Emissions Trading System proceeds) to the tune of $590 million annually to arguably return taxes raised on climate polluters to Kiwi families.  

Why? This is simply bad policy. Those funds should be put to work to get our emissions exposure down fast. 

Second, that proposal to raise $740 million annually from introducing a 15 per cent foreign buyer tax on the acquisition of houses worth more than $2 million. Apart from the barrage of economists who have challenged the math – there has been another sideways shuffle as critics piled on. 

That is to now say what National really has in mind is selling houses above $3-4 million to those who will potentially invest here. This after the initial math was disputed. 

Here’s a reminder. This is not what the policy says. Notably, of some 1600 houses in the $2m-$3.5m listed for sale on TradeMe yesterday – some 862 were in Auckland. 

You don’t have to be blessed with particular smarts to know that it will soon be the time to jump back into the market in Auckland’s inner suburbs before foreign investors add competition and push prices up again. 

Great wealth effect. But questionable. 

Willis is on track to be the country’s finance minister elect within a fortnight. That’s assuming her boss doesn’t get strong-armed by Winston Peters into carving up the finance portfolio with him as Treasurer (again) and Willis in the junior role. 

That’s what happened when New Zealand First was last (in fact the only time) in coalition with a National Party-led Government. 

In 1996, Peters was Treasurer in New Zealand’s first MPP government. The fastidious Bill Birch was finance minister. Birch was a devil for detail. Officials were often lined up outside his Beehive office into the early hours as he drove the machinery of state to get stuff done. 

Things have moved on. If New Zealand First is a key post-election player, he might prefer foreign affairs (to Judith Collins chagrin).

But just weeks ago, it would not have seen beyond the realm of possibility that Act’s David Seymour might find himself as part of a finance duo or troika in a National-led Coalition. 

If Willis was smart she would let him be the Minister in charge of cost-cutting. 

There are plenty imbued with bravado – the sort which view people as “headcount” – who want to take a machete to the public service and cut staff and consultants. 

When the dessert turns to custard – as it will as public servants take to the streets and protest swingeing cuts – far better to push Seymour out front to take the consequences. 

Another lesson from history. 

Ruth Richardson only lasted a term as finance minister when she drove major cost cuts in the 1990-1993 parliamentary term. 

Willis does not impress as having the same kamikaze qualities. She is for the long game. 

But an incoming Government will need to appreciate that there are pain points. After the pandemic we have had a major erosion in social cohesion. 

It is the easiest thing in the world to slash and burn. It does not require particular courage. 

Willis is just the latest politician to play the “resignation card”. 

Sir John Key closed off debate ahead of the 2008 election on the question of whether an incoming National-led Government would raise the qualifying age for National Superannuation. 

It was seen – by some - as a negative issue for National. Memories still resonated from Jim Bolger’s time as prime minister when he quashed plans to cut a surcharge on super. 

Key took if off the table. National Prime Minister Bill English promoted an increase from 65-67 years at the 2017 election. 

But a policy that is long overdue has yet to move. 

Again, do the math. How can taxpayers support so many people to do nothing for 15-20-30 years of their life? 

Then there is Dame Jacinda’s “captain’s call” on a capital gains tax and Chris Hipkins’ similar call on wealth taxes. 

How about instead of playing resignation cards and resorting to the misnamed captains’ calls, set some ambition and sell the way forward that is really at the heart of their political ideologies.