The 1st XI.

A whole team's worth of things bound to happen at the 1-Day WC.

• We won't win it. I'm talking with my head not my heart here.
Of course I'd love us to upset the odds and go one step better than
last time but reality says we have about as much chance of victory in England
as they do in Japan come October. The parallels are eerie. Yes they're a good
side, yes on their day they could beat any opposition and YES they'd need absolutely
everything to go in their favour including luck, injuries, other results and not
a single dodgy call from anyone officiating. Can we win it, yes. Will we win it,
probably not.

• Afghanistan will win at least one game, let's just hope it's not against us. 
What fan from whatever other country doesn't have these blokes as their second
favourite team? If there is a God of cricket then let's all pray they might do to Ozzie
what the Brave Blossoms did to South Africa at the last RWC. If they do have one
huge upset in them wouldn't it be some sort of karmic justice if it's against the
foul-mouthed sandpaper cheats.

• The weather will play its part, that's a given. It is England in summertime remember
so do expect the odd hurricane, flash flood, hailstorm and/or sudden unexpected polar blast. Not every game will go the distance so be prepared for more than one appearance from Messrs Duckworth & Lewis.

• The ball will swing. Because if it doesn't we may as well come home now. When, where and how much it'll move is perhaps the single most debated question about the whole event. And after two warm-up matches we remain none the wiser. Against India it swung like a pendulum, vs the West Indies not an inch. The problem we face is that over the next six weeks the pitches will wear, the weather will do its thing, players will have good and bad days while all the while we're heavily reliant on the white ball dancing like Beyonce no matter what the other variables involved.

• Ross Taylor will hit at least one ton. Statistically it's nigh impossible he won't. The guy is an absolute run machine and one can't stress enough how much we're gonna need him to be. Here's the thing. Every time he bats for us in a 1-dayer he scores 50. Since 2017 his average is over 70. If there's odds being offered on sure-fire certainties at this tournament then RT hitting 100 and Bangladesh not winning it would be a couple of locks.

• David Warner and Steve Smith will get the raspberry every game they play. The crowd heaped on them from the start of their first warm-up match and expect it to only increase in both intensity and velocity. All sports events are much more fun when there's a few villains to hate and these two play their roles perfectly. And to be honest the booing will not affect either of them one bit.

• England will thrive on the pressure of expectation and rise to the challenge of being home-town favourites- at least until the tournament starts anyway. Rest assured, like all their national teams at world championships, it'll all eventually get too much to bear and they'll suffer another very-nearly-almost heart-breaking defeat at only the most crucial stage that'll once again relegate them to being the gallant unlucky bunch of losers they so desperately crave.

• South Africa won't make the final. Honestly Zimbabwe have more chance than them, and they're not even at the tournie. Not that the Saffirs aren't any good, just that since re-entry in 1992 they've become 1-Day cricket's equivalent of the All Blacks between 1987-2011, showcasing a remarkable consistent ability to bottle it and choke at the final hurdle. So this time it'll be different and they'll remove that gorilla from their own backs ... or much more likely, they won't.

• Many NZers will spend the next six weeks using their lounge as their bedroom or, if not, sharing their bed with Brain Waddle and Jeremy Coney. Given the timezones involved, to fervently follow the Black Caps throughout this adventure will require an enormous commitment in man hours. Not to mention the complete neglect of quality relationship time with those in the household used to much more attention than they're about to get. Six weeks is habit forming - so good luck explaining why this is more important than anything else in your life 'til mid July.

• The 50-over game will become cricket's prodigal son with the format enjoying a resurgence in popularity - for at least the duration anyway. The romanticism of a world championship will mean most temporarily forgetting the tedium that 1-day series the world over have become - hence the reason T-20 was invented. And if you doubt me then ask yourself who, India aside, we played last summer and what those results were.

• We won't win it but Australia probably will. 
Why? Because that's what they do. This is their tournament. They've won four of the last five, five of the last eight, almost half of the total events played, making the final five of the last six. Their record is simply stunning. But the thought, the mere thought, of snidey Warner and smug Smith celebrating another triumph at Lord's, the gloating Warner running bat-raised fist-pumping along the pitch would be a sandpaper sandwich for everyone else who plays and loves the sport. Think Michael Cheika meets Craig Bellamy marries Nick Krygios. If that doesn't inspire every neutral fan to immediately start voting ABA (Anyone But Australia) I dunno what could.