There is no one on this planet who is yet to form an opinion of Donald Trump. 

No one. No one who doesn’t know him. No one who thinks he could be okay as President for a second term, they just need to hear a bit more of his policies, or sure, he was alright the first-time round, but they really need to weigh him up before committing to a second hit. 

Yesterday will have changed a grand total of zero opinions on the man. Those who find him odious will have had their views affirmed. Those who sincerely believe he’s the victim of some grand conspiracy will feel even more deeply the whole World is against the former President. America’s great divide grows a little bit deeper. 

It was vintage Trump, of course. Vintage. Rejecting his guilty charges, he slagged off the judge and the witnesses. He immediately labelled the whole thing as a stitch-up, as rigged. Anyone else would have been locked up for contempt of court. You could almost hear the servers at his campaign headquarters groaning under the surge of donations as they poured in by the millions from supporters around the World. 

I think one of the few defences the Democrats have against Donald Trump’s populism are the democratic institutions he has so methodically undermined. I do think the man deserves to answer criminal charges. January 6th, the efforts to ‘find more votes,’ and even the boxes of classified material in his spare shower; these are all much, much more serious than the Stormy Daniels payment. 

This case was sordid and trivial, and by bringing it first, whether deliberately or otherwise, I think they undermined the gravity of what has been alleged in what are far more important cases. 

So, what do Donald Trump’s felony convictions mean for the election? Very little, in my view. If voters supported him heading into this trial, having heard him in the Access Hollywood tape, having heard the sexual assault accusations, and having heard him reject the results of an election, they weren’t going to turn on him over some sneaky accounting, even if it did involve a porn star. 

This will simply galvanise people. It’ll entrench the two sides. Those who dislike him will feel that little bit more justified. Those who think he’s a martyr will feel that little bit more justified. You watch – even though Trump is the first President convicted of a felony, Joe Biden won’t make much of a song and dance about the whole thing. Five months from the election, the net effects will be limited by the time people go to the polls. By the time people cast ballots there will be other stories, scandals, moments on the campaign that stick fresher in people’s minds. 

There is no one in America who does not yet have a view of Donald Trump. The election will be decided by about four states, and whatever side can actually get its people to the polls.