BNZ expects house prices to remain flat this year, then lift by seven percent over 2025.  

They don't think declines in mortgage rates will cause an immediate jump in the housing market.  

But they do expect it'll likely prevent a deeper correction. 

Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking that it’s a pretty average number when you take into account the price increases over the past few decades. 

He said forecasting 12 months in advance is always a tough ask, but when they factor in the changing fundamentals, such as lower mortgage rates, and match them up against things like the economy and the labour market, an upturn in house prices seems likely.  

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