There's an old saying in advertising - to be successful you don't sell the sausage, you sell the sizzle. Christopher Luxon may have a great sausage, but he's not selling its sizzle. The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll released yesterday afternoon had National up 1.7 points to 33.6%, but Labour had moved past it, jumping nearly three points to 34.1%. The Greens fell to 10%, down 3.2 points. ACT went down 2.3 points and Te Pati Māori rose 2.1 points to 6.5%. NZ First went down 1.3 points to 5.1%. So when we translate this number soup into seats in the house, both Labour and National are up three each to 42. The Greens are down four to 12, ACT is down two to 10, NZ First down to to six, Te Pati Māori up two to eight. That would mean the centre left block of Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Māori would have 62 seats to the centre-right's 58 and thus could form a centre-left government.   

Now, before anyone starts booking a one-way flight to Australia, the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day. And these opinion polls, midway through a government's term, generally show a disgruntlement with the current lot that's in, rather than an overwhelming desire to see the other lot take over. But this is the third poll, in a row, that puts the opposition ahead.  

And you might know, and I might know that the government's doing a good job of trying to re-establish some semblance of fiscal propriety, that they're redrawing boundaries about what is and what isn't acceptable behaviour within a decent society, and they've taken the first steps towards restoring a world class education system. But you and I also know that we live in a democracy and every vote counts. The lady who called in and wanted taxpayers to buy everyone a house and a car because that would give them a sense of belonging  —she wasn't quite sure how to pay for it, but she thought it would be cheaper in the long run than jail terms— her vote counts the same as yours.  

There is no denying that the three-headed coalition beast makes it difficult to govern. The Treaty Principles Bill has been a divisive distraction, the bloody school lunches are yet another Labour well-intentioned, misguided initiative that has become this government's problem. People still aren't feeling better off, and they're still waiting a long time for a hip replacement. Dissatisfaction, disgruntlement, disengagement, that's all part of the midterm blues. Speaking to the Herald, Christopher Luxon said New Zealanders are going to have an opportunity in 2026, which is not that far away, to make a decision around Chris Hipkins or myself, he said, and our respective governments. My job is to make sure New Zealanders see that they're better off under my Government, we've come through a very tough time, there are some green shoots that we're really encouraged about on the economy ultimately, he said, New Zealanders are going to judge me at the election in 2026 as to whether we've delivered for them on rebuilding the economy, restoring law and order, delivering better health and education.   

So do you agree that this is the government not being able to sell its sizzle. The sausage is there, but without the sizzle there will be no successful selling story. I could understand why some within National could feel brassed off. We've got the policies, the building bricks, the foundations, to get New Zealand cracking again and that will better everybody. But if people don't believe that, if they don't believe the message, then they go to vote Labour and we're going to get a centre-left government.