Christopher Luxon has reason to smile this morning – there are two sets of data to cheer about. 

First, the poll. He's shaking off that slightly cringe CEO moniker and cementing himself as a man with a plan, in charge, across most of the issues, and not allowing himself to become too distracted by the inevitable noise that comes with running the ninth floor. 

The latest taxpayer's union curia poll is out, it has National up 1.4 to 39% 

That's an extra seat from National, NZ First also get another, while there's also no change for ACT. Safe across the line for the coalition, with 67 seats. 

Preferred Prime Minister is getting interesting. 

Chippy's gone off a cliff, the trend is down, but this result’s a shocker – he's down 6.1 points to 12.6%. 

Luxon? 32.7%. 

Chippy is now almost within margin of error with, not Luxon, but Chlöe on 7.2%. 

The other numbers today, NZIER's quarterly consensus data. 

Not so great for us, at least in the short term. Big fat zero GDP growth in the year to March. 

That's depressing. We've had almost two years of recession, or close to now, and people just want this country firing again. 

That's where Luxon will be happy to see this prediction: 2.2% growth expected in the year to March 2026. 

And we know what else is happening in 2026, right? An election. 

It's humble, not runaway, but after these past years it's electoral fairy dust. 

People don't generally vote on race relations, the politics of envy or climate change. 

They vote on how rich they feel and who might make them richer. 

Luxon, at least on these numbers, would appear to have the upper hand on that front.