So we’ll know today. 

Winston Peters will reveal who will be the next Prime Minister. And isn't that, in itself absurd.

Bill English isn't going to inform us that National's come to an agreement with New Zealand First. Nor is Jacinda Ardern. She won't be calling a media conference to tell the country that she is the new Prime Minister. 

No. It's Winston. The politician with 7.2 percent of the party vote who will tell is who is going to govern our country.  

But let’s put the madness of MMP to one side for a moment and look at the implications of this. 

So will it be Jacinda Ardern? Or will it be Bill English? 

If it’s National, Jacinda Ardern will retain the Labour leadership and she’ll bed in and spend the next three years growing into that leadership role. She’ll be strong in opposition and come next election, if the wheels fall off the National-New Zealand First Government and you'd think that's a given wouldn't you. Then she’ll be well-placed to win the next election in a landslide. 

But what if Peters chooses Labour, and remember his party’s policies align much better with Labour then they do with National. Then what happens and chiefly what happens to Bill English?

Does he stay on, or is his political career over? I can't see him retaining the leadership. In fact, he can’t. He was the incumbent Prime Minister and he lost the election, he‘ll need to step down and that means step away from politics for good. 

So who would take over as leader? Who would you back? National once had a string of senior ministers who could step into that role, but that’s not the case anymore. 

Steven Joyce and Gerry Brownlee have been National’s bully-boys for some time now, and that greatly lessens their appeal in a leadership role. And Joyce is tarnished by the fiscal hole, that never was.

Jonathan Coleman had aspirations. He challenged Bill English for the leadership when John Key stood done, but he’s a poor communicator. They couldn't give him the leadership, surely. 

Judith Collins? She’s been involved in a good few scandals. Three years ago, I would have said yes, she could lead the party. But not now. 

Anne Tolley? No, she’s a workhorse and a good, strong minister, but given the choice between Ardern and Tolley in the next election, Ardern would monster Tolley. Ardern will still represent another generation and the mood for change and Tolley couldn’t match that. 

Paula Bennett, no. Bennett didn’t shine in this election campaign. Her appeal seems to have fallen by the wayside. She's not ready for the leadership. And then there's Nikki Kaye but putting her up against Ardern would be almost a like for like. National would need a point of difference. 

So who? Any ideas? Simon Bridges, perhaps? This is all hypothetical. Winston Peters may tell us this afternoon that Bill English will retain the role of Prime Minister but he may not too. And what then for National? They use to have an army of potential leaders, but who will lead that party if they find out this afternoon they'll be in opposition for the next three years?