So a new poll shows the Nats nudging past Labour to form a government with Act.

No Māori Party needed as Kingmaker, which has been the current narrative of course.. how close the race is, how powerful Te Pāti Māori could end up.

If this poll becomes a trend, not powerful at all. But I still think Luxon did the right thing ruling them out and not a moment too soon.

He's dead right when he says they're not the party they were, they grandstanders.

But he's also right to do it because it makes him look decisive, like he stands for something, principled, and like a leader. And he desperately needs that right now.

Because this latest poll also showed that his personal popularity is still floundering. He got his lowest favourability rating since becoming the leader in November 2021.

Now the likes of Richard Prebble will argue women are the problem for Luxon - as in, they don't like him.

He wrote a column yesterday saying ‘Polling indicates that women like Chris Hipkins’ “I am just a boy from the Hutt”, and dislike Christopher Luxon’s “I am from head office”.

But that’s not true of all women, and it dilutes women’s voting preferences down to identity politics, or the politics of personality.

However, Prebble claims the ones who saw Ardern swept to victory in 2020 were the previously National voters, who’d changed their tune and had fallen hook line and sinker for her.

They voted for her, not Labour.

He claims it’s those ’Ardern women’ as he calls them, who will decide the next election.

But surely if that theory is correct, then you have to account for how many of those ‘Ardern women’ will now – post Jacinda, be able to see through the warm fuzzy approach.

How many of them have been disappointed and will not be seduced by the ‘Boy from the Hutt’ rhetoric and actually want to see more than just populism and idealism?

Women are savvy, they’re smart, and they’re able to see through the BS.

Not all of them of course, but I’d be surprised if we see a large proportion of women come October, falling for big smiles and platitudes, again.

I also think this election is shaping up to be a bit of a verdict on where we are at as a country.

And I’d hazard a guess that we are over it, we are over the way it’s currently being run and what’s happened to it.

The state of the economy, the cost of living crisis, the striking nurses and teachers, the health care system in tatters, the education system in tatters, crime through the roof, disengaged disenfranchised youth, division and tribalism, an overarching negativity and oppressiveness about the place.

Lack of Police, lack of accountability, lack of transparency – I’m not sure why we’d vote for more of that?

One poll does not a trend make, and we'd need a few more to show the trajectory, but I've got a feeling this race won't be as tight as pundits predict.

I just wonder if it looks tight in places like social media platforms or Facebook groups or newspaper comments sections, but in heartland New Zealand it’s clearer cut.

What about all the people not venting their frustrations or airing their views on those platforms?

So still plenty of water to go under the bridge, but in terms of how tight it's going to be; I think we'll see the gap slowly start to widen as people wake up to what's really going on in this country.