Labour is toast. Who’s saying that, do you think? And do I agree with them? I’ll tell you shortly.

First, though, I want to tell you about a book I’ve been reading called Atomic Habits.

The basic gist of some of the stuff I’ve read so far, is that if you want to make significant changes, you can do it by making a whole lot of small changes and, incrementally, they’ll add-up to big change.

And it talks about there being no such thing as an overnight success or overnight change. It’s just that a whole lot of things happen and build up until, bang, there’s one final thing that pushes things over the edge and makes big change happen.

And not just happen - but also makes big change apparent to everyone else.

Which I think is very relevant to what political commentator Matthew Hooton is saying about all this business with Transport Minister Michael Wood, and how he thinks it has almost guaranteed Christopher Luxon becoming Prime Minister in October.

He thinks the Michael Wood saga is going to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and, because of that, Labour can forget about a third term in government.

Like the thinking coming through in the book I just mentioned, the Michael Wood thing on its own doesn’t spell “corruption” - it doesn’t make Michael Wood an evil person. But it does spell arrogance.

And Mathew Hooton thinks that on top of all the other cock-ups that government ministers have been involved in recently - Jan Tinetti not correcting the record when she effectively told porkies in Parliament; Stuart Nash running amok on the emails, telling some his financial supporters about confidential Cabinet discussions; and Justice Minister Kiri Allan shooting her mouth off at a farewell function - the Michael Woof situation is going to be the final nail for Labour.

The important point he makes is that none of these ministers are legally corrupt. He says they just don’t seem to think the rules of Cabinet apply to them.

And, as I’ve said before as well, he thinks Labour is looking like a tired, arrogant third-term government. Not a second-term government trying to win a third term. And that’s exactly what it looks like. There’s no doubt about that.

Hooton says Labour is still patting itself on the back for the way it handled COVID and the March 15 attacks. And, because of that, it’s gone all arrogant on it - three years earlier than you might normally expect from a government.

And I couldn’t agree with him more.

On top of that, new survey results out today show that people think the National Party is the most capable of handling three of the top five issues New Zealanders care about.

This is the Ipsos Issues monitor which puts a survey out four or five times a year.

The findings of the latest one out today say most people think National is the best party to deal with inflation and the cost of living; crime and law & order; and housing. Which, by the way, are identified in the survey as being the issues people are most concerned about.

I thought at the start of the year that Chris Hipkins was looking promising to take out the election. But he has just been let down time-and-time-again by his ministers. And he will be fuming over this latest stuff with Michael Wood.

I saw him on TV last night saying how, like the rest of us, he just can’t understand how the airport shares thing dragged on for so long.

I’ve heard many people say over the last few days that the Michael Wood thing and the Jan Tinetti issues are very Wellington - or “beltway” if we want to use the American term.

But I think Hooton is right. And even if stuff is beltway and not necessarily having an impact on our daily lives, you do always get to the point where, if there are enough of them, it is the last cab off the rank that breaks the camel’s back.

And I think the Transport Minister is that last cab off the rank. And I think he has blown it for Labour.