On this day in 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, escalating the tensions that had existed between the countries since 2014.

It was a move that sent shockwaves around the world, over the prospect of what Russian President Vladimir Putin could do next after crushing Ukraine.

What no one expected was for the Ukrainian people to fight back so stubbornly and hold the Russians at bay.

Kiwi war journalist Tom Mutch has been reporting on the conflict since the beginning and is currently on his way back to the country to continue his work.

Speaking to The Front Page podcast en route to Ukraine, Mutch says it’s difficult to quantify exactly how many lives have been lost since the fighting began 12 months ago.

“The military statistics are quite closely guarded secret, especially in Ukraine,” says Mutch.

“Very few people know what the actual military casualties are... The estimates I’ve heard on the Ukrainian side are around 30,000, and probably more on the Russian side, at around 50,000 to 60,000. But the Ukrainian figures could be more than double that.”

Mutch says that neither side is willing to reveal this information because of the dire impact it could have on the morale of their respective militaries.

“The Ukrainians believe that if they are to reveal the exact figures, it would have quite a detrimental effect on morale because people will be shocked by how many have died. And that could also mean soldiers are less likely to volunteer.”

This war has also had major geopolitical consequences, with both the United States and China keeping a close eye on what’s happening.

Just this week, US President Joe Biden visited Ukraine, while China’s top diplomat Wang Yi visited Moscow.

Mutch says that the significance of Biden’s visit in particular shouldn’t be underestimated.

“What Biden effectively did was put his personal credibility and that of his entire administration on the line. By going to Kyiv, he effectively said he was going to back them to the absolute hilt. What this means is that the Americans are effectively drawing a line in the sand that as long as Ukraine keeps fighting, they’re going to keep supplying and funding that war effort.”

China’s position is, however, more complicated given that they have claimed neutrality in this war since its start. Beijing has even gone as far as to suggest that they could play a role in brokering a peace deal between the warring nations.

But Mutch believes this is unlikely.

“I don’t think there are many chances of something like that coming to fruition soon. And the reason for that is that both sides believe they can still make serious military gains over the next year. And while either side thinks they have a possibility of getting a better military footprint or taking more territory from the other side, this war is not going to end up on the negotiating table.”

Mutch says that any prospect of negotiation will not be possible until both sides have beaten each other to a pulp and one has made a key military breakthrough.

“You’re probably going to have to wait about another year until both sides have effectively run out of manpower or ammunition and can’t really keep the fight up any longer...

“I’ll be surprised if we weren’t having this conversation on February 23 or 24 next year. Although, by then we’ll have a pretty clear idea of who the victor is going to be. But for now, there’s more blood yet to be shed.”

Listen to this episode of The Front Page podcast for the full discussion on the war, the Ukrainian resolve and what it will take to stop the Russian offensive.