National leader Christopher Luxon has brushed off fears a National-Act movement is losing momentum, saying he is focused on his own party.

Luxon, who is campaigning in Whanganui, spoke to media after the Herald’s Poll of Polls showed NZ First’s rise means there is now only a 13 per cent chance of National and Act forming a clear coalition.

”I lead the National Party and we’re getting a great reaction across the country and the last few weeks and this year,” Luxon said.

“We’ve been to many places where marginal seats are and we’re getting good movement. We’re a week out, what happens now is up to them [voters] - vote for the change you want to see happen.”

According to the poll, National is sitting at 35.8 per cent and Act at 10.6 per cent. Labour has 26.8 per cent, the Greens are on 12.3 per cent and Te Pāti Māori is at 2.8 per cent. NZ First is now on 5.7 per cent – its vote could fall between 4.9 and 6.4 per cent.

That means National and Act would need NZ First to form a government if it gets over the 5 per cent mark.

Christopher Luxon takes a selfie with Jayde Butturini, 12, at the riverside market in Whanganui on Saturday. Photo / Mark Mitchell 

Luxon also said he wished to work in partnership with Maori despite wanting to disestablish the Maori Health Authority.

He had been meeting with iwi leaders over the last few weeks in small groups to talk about delivering better outcomes for Maori. He said he had been upfront about his desire to disestablish the Maori Health Authority.

”We discussed that very openly and I’ve discussed it openly with iwi leaders and we have good deployed resources on the ground - that’s what we have in common as a party that believes in local solutions.”

”We will have one single system. We’re all aligned on wanting improved outcomes for Maori and for Kiwis - in conversations with iwi leaders it’s about how do we empower local services to deliver those services.”

He said National would partner and work Maori to deliver services.

”As we did in our last Government - we’re not up for two separate systems, there will be one but it will have innovation within there. That is done locally, on the ground with partners that can secure results.”

Luxon started his day at the riverside market. Surrounded by a bunch of sign-holding National supporters, Luxon said there was one week to go and he was ready to work hard all the way to the finish line.

But his walk was not plain sailing. The first market stall he came to was a Green Party stall, which he walked past as Green supporters called out: “Party vote Green, you can keep your $20 tax cut.”

A man then approached Luxon and criticised his tenure at as head of Air NZ for cutting back on regional flights. He said Luxon didn’t deserve to lead the country, and Luxon replied that he should calm down and not be so angry.

The latest Herald poll of polls shows Labour, Te Pāti Māori and the Greens would also need leader Winston Peters and his NZ First party to form a government, but Peters and Hipkins have ruled out working with each other - although the public aren’t so sure of that.

In the latest Taxpayers’ Union - Curia poll, 1000 voters were asked whether they believed Peters when he said he would not work with Labour again.

Fifty-five per cent of respondents said no, 27 per cent said yes and 17 per cent were unsure.

Possible coalitions for an election now 

Distribution of the number of seats available to potential coalitions based on 8000 simulations of an election this Saturday. The vertical line indicates the 61 seat threshold needed to form a government. 

It is assumed that Te Pāti Māori will win an electorate seat. Based on model predictions on 6 October 2023. 

Luxon said in September he would pick up a call from Peters if he had to, and in recent weeks National’s campaign strategy has pivoted to urging voters to deliver a clear government by voting National. 

This plea may have fallen on deaf ears, however, as National’s predicted vote in the poll of polls dropped a bit since September – from 36.1 to 35.8 per cent. 

National employed former PM Sir John Key to promote that message during the week. It was expected more former National identities would do the same in the coming days.