Former Prime Minister Sir John Key says the US election is “obviously very tight” as former US Ambassador and staunch Democrat Mark Gilbert disagreed with Key’s earlier assessment Donald Trump will win the election — and would be a better pick for the economy.

In an interview with Stuff a month ago, Key said he thought Trump would win the election and while Trump would not necessarily be good for New Zealand, he would be a better pick for the economy. Key had also described Democrat contender Kamala Harris as “quite left-wing” and “well left of [US President Joe] Biden.”

Contacted yesterday and asked if he was sticking to his prediction that Trump would win, Key said he had nothing to add.

“Like everyone else let’s see what happens, it’s obviously very tight.”

Ambassador Mark Gilbert arrived with wife Nancy, and Simon the dog at the US residence. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Gilbert has been helping on Harris’ campaign both with fundraising and door knocking. He spoke to the Herald from Pittsburgh ahead of Harris’ rallies on Tuesday. He said Key’s assessment of both Trump and Harris was “not accurate at all”.

Gilbert was ambassador to New Zealand when Key was Prime Minister and Barack Obama, a Democrat, was President. Key and Obama met numerous times and remain in contact. Obama is helping on the Harris campaign.

Gilbert said he and his wife Nancy had come to know the Key family well and become good friends.

“[We] have had numerous conversations about Donald Trump, he knows how we feel about it. Sir John and I probably agree on most things, but he knows we disagree on Donald Trump.”

Key had said he thought Trump would have the edge provided he managed to keep the debate on the economy. Polls in the seven battleground states reflect a very close race.

Gilbert said he believed it would be “a margin of error race” but his optimism of a Harris win was at 9 out of 10, saying she had a strong chance of picking up undecided voters — especially women.

“My belief is that women will turn out in record numbers, the youth vote will turn out in record numbers and we have a very sophisticated ground game. I think people will be surprised at how strong her performance is on Tuesday.”

On Key’s assessment of Harris as very left-wing, Gilbert said Harris had been “tough as nails” in the US Senate and had also been a prosecutor.

“She has tried drug cartels, she’s dealt with very serious crime and she has been very strong with that. So for someone to think she is a far-left politician is far from the truth.”

He also argued it was trite to say only those who were right of centre or Republican were good for the economy. He said under Democrats, the economy had grown and more people had come out of poverty and into the middle class, there were more jobs created.

“So to believe that having Donald Trump as President would be good for the economy? He was the first President since the Great Depression to lose jobs.”

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon would not give his views on either who he thought would win, or which candidate was best for New Zealand, saying he would work with whomever won the election. It was the same answer Key had given as Prime Minister when Trump won the 2016 election over Democrat candidate Hilary Clinton.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon outside the Capitol in Washington DC in July 2024. Photo / Claire Trevett

Asked about the fate of New Zealand’s hopes for a free trade agreement and the high tariffs Trump is proposing, Luxon said there did not seem to be much political appetite for free-trade deals on either side and he did not see that changing.

“I appreciate there’s a lot of policies being proposed by both candidates ... my commitment is we will work very positively with whoever the American people choose.”

He said New Zealand’s preparation had involved building relationships with both Democrat and Republican politicians in Congress and the Senate, including on his visit to Washington DC earlier this year.

He said when he had a chance to meet with the next President, he would push New Zealand’s case as a small trading nation that was reliant on the international rules-based system

Gilbert said trade was not the biggest factor people should take into account when deciding whether Harris or Trump was the best choice for the world.

“Donald Trump has shown incredible authoritarian and dictator tendencies, and that’s how he believes he should be able to rule. It would be terrible for New Zealand and the entire Western alliance to have someone who doesn’t care about anyone but himself. It would be incredibly dangerous.”

He said Harris had gained a lot of experience in international affairs as Vice President over a period that included the Russia–Ukraine war and ongoing tensions in the Indo-Pacific.