A new poll shows support for the coalition Government’s three parties has fallen behind that of Labour, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori, which together could form the next Government.

The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, released this afternoon, found support had risen for both major parties since the last poll in January – National getting a 2.3-percentage-point boost to 31.9% and Labour inching up 0.4 points to 31.3%.

The Green Party jumped more than any other party, rising by 3.7 points to 13.2%, while Act (0.8-point drop to 10%), New Zealand First (1.7-point drop to 6.4%) and Te Pāti Māori (0.9-point drop to 4.4%) fell.

Based on those numbers, the coalition parties wouldn’t be able to form the Government as they could only muster 59 seats, two short of a 61-seat majority.

However, a potential coalition between Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would achieve the 61-seat target on these numbers.

Te Pāti Māori co-leaders Rawiri Waititi (left) and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. Photo / Marty Melville

The poll was conducted between February 2-4, closing the day before the parliamentarian pōwhiri at Waitangi and ahead of the celebrations for the national day. A total of 1000 people were polled via landline, mobile phone and online. It had a 3.1% margin of error.

More people believed the country was moving in the wrong direction, according to the poll. About half of respondents believed New Zealand was headed in the wrong direction, while 34.2% supported the country’s direction. That gave a net result of -15.8%, down 1.8 points on the last poll.

As for the preferred Prime Minister ratings, the gap between National’s Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins was closing with Luxon dropping 3.8 points to 20.7% while Hipkins had increased 2.3 points to 17.6%.

Taxpayers’ Union spokesman James Ross said the results signalled the Government’s failure to “fix the current economic bonfire”.

“It’s no coincidence the proportion of people who think New Zealand is heading in the right direction keeps plummeting.

“If a poll showing they’d lose power if there was an election held today isn’t a wake-up call, nothing will be.”

Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.