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It's "roll your sleeves up" time for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Cabinet, according to former finance minister Steven Joyce as he looked ahead to the newly appointed Government's first year in office.
It's the first day back in Parliament today and the Government has already laid out clear objectives for its first 100 days in office, across a range of sectors including the economy.
While polls and anecdotal evidence suggest there's early confidence in the Coalition Government to restore stability to the country's economy, particularly in a recent general poll showing National at 40 per cent, Joyce urged the leadership to remain focused.
Talking to The Mike Hosking Breakfast this morning, Joyce admitted there would be reason for the Government to feel bullish heading into this year with its strong backing in the polls, but it would be still conscious of the massive undertaking ahead.
"You've got an economy as you saw which has been in recession, we've been pretty flat to shrinking anyway and you've got a situation where you have to tighten government expenditure because we've been running at a rate you can't afford," he said.
"So, you're sitting there thinking 'right, if I'm going to tighten expenditure, that will reduce government activity and I'll have to encourage the private sector to get into it, otherwise we're going to have a gap and when we need to be growing we'll be shrinking'."
Joyce said adopting this mindset will prove to be a challenge, he considers the coming year to be a "changing gear" year toward moving to an attitude of no longer "endlessly borrowing and spending" to reducing activity and asking the private sector to step in and invest.
Hosking brought Joyce's attention to the recent inflation rate of 4.7 per cent, which might be a sign of encouragement given its drop from previous years.
However, Hosking also expressed his concern over the non-tradable number of 5.9 per cent and asked how worried the Government should be when taking into account aspects like mortgage rates and the reserve bank.
The former finance minister said the non-tradable figures were a concern, as it would slow down any ideas that Reserve Bank's Governor General Adrian Orr and the Monetary Policy Committee might have to reduce interest rates quickly.
"We're small, we're not a particularly competitive economy, there's not that many firms in each industry so once you get inflation away it can be hard to get under control. You see the Americans have managed it but we're struggling a bit," said Joyce.
"So I suspect our interest rates will stay high for longer. Whether that means they'll go with a change early in the year, they might, but they know the risk might be they have to reverse course as the year goes on."
Hosking asked how long it will be before problems stop being blamed on the previous Labour Government and Luxon begins to cop the blame.
"I don't know the answer because it hasn't happened yet and you can never really tell," said Joyce.
"I think he'll get a fair bit of time but people will be wanting to see progress, they'll be wanting to see some of the commentary of his ministers, that pre-election commentary that they're still running with to some degree, and so 'okay we're gonna do this that and this thing, and yep we know it's gonna take a while but here's the steps we're taking'."
Joyce said this approach will retain the public's confidence for a while longer, provided they can see the country is still moving in the right direction.
He reasoned that the Government couldn't change the country's infrastructure overnight, especially given the "mess" of which agency was in charge of which particular project.
"You've got housing as another one - Kainga Ora was clearly headed for trouble and now you've got a ministerial enquiry. So all these things are going to take time but now it's about how to position themselves to gain confidence."
On immigration issues, which has seen an influx of 250,000 people in the last year alone, Hosking claimed that number would concern even the most confident of immigration fans.
But Joyce read the situation as less of a concern, he believed the country was still in a post-Covid climate in certain respects and when it came to immigration, it had encountered a two-year period with nobody entering New Zealand.
He said it would take about three years before normal rates of immigration would return.
"So yes it's very high, but it's not three years' worth," he said.
"I think it'll ease off. There were lots of people leaving and underlying all of that, there was a concerning number of citizens moving to Australia ... too many Kiwis see that as the land of opportunity at the moment. But I think the overall migration opportunities will ease off over the coming year."
On Luxon, Joyce backed his capability to make shifts in government policy and approach - stating he saluted his ability to claim the Prime Minister role despite only being in parliament for three years.
"[It] means he won't know how to do everything right away but he's a heck of a fast learner and you've seen that," he said.
"He's not the candidate out of central casting who's fully formed and had twelve years to think about it, but he's got the gig and will work hard to make a success of it and he learns quickly, so I think he'll do well."
Joyce said many problems won't be fixed this year - naming infrastructure and education as just a couple of examples, but he believed there was still plenty the Coalition Government could do to get off to a running start.
He said steps like the returning of core learning subjects to schools were a good example of small steps to get the ship turning.
"We've got a lot of work to do and we need to roll up our sleeves and everybody needs to step up."
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