After repeatedly telling voters how much National would prefer not to work with NZ First voters appear to be requesting the exact opposite, with the latest poll again showing Winston Peters once again in the “kingmaker” position.
It also won’t be welcome news for Labour with the party stagnating at 26 per cent support. But the worst blow might be National leader Christopher Luxon overtaking Labour’s Chris Hipkins for the first time in the poll’s preferred prime minister stakes - a rare occurrence of an incumbent prime minister.
Wednesday evening’s 1News Verian poll had National steady on 36 per cent support from a week ago and Act down two to 10 per cent.
It would give them 46 and 13 seats respectively - together 59 seats and just below the 61 needed to form a majority in the 120-seat Parliament.
This means Luxon’s “last resort” appears increasingly likely, with him needing to call up NZ First’s Winston Peters and the support of the eight seats projected under the poll.
NZ First was steady on 6 per cent.
The poll had National steady on 36 per cent and Labour steady on 26 per cent. The Greens also steady on 13 per cent, Te Pāti Māori steady on 2 per cent and The Opportunities Party up 1 point to 2 per cent.
According to the poll, the left bloc would see Labour on 33 seats, the Greens 17 and and Te Pāti Māori 3. Together this added up to just 53 seats, and well below the threshold.
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The last poll, revealed a week ago, also showed National and Act needed the support of NZ First to form a government - another of multiple recent polls having the party above the 5 per cent threshold to enter Parliament.
Leader Winston Peters has been holding packed public meetings across the country and support for a return to Parliament looks increasingly likely.
Peters has refused to work with Labour again, meaning his only option of getting into Government is with National.
Luxon long put off even acknowledging Peters was on the radar, but after successive polls had NZ First over the threshold, he confirmed National would work with NZ First alongside Act - if it needed their support.
Despite this, Luxon has been using nearly every media opportunity to state working NZ First was his “last resort” to keep Labour out of government.
The preferred prime minister stakes had Luxon ahead of Hipkins for the first time out of all 1News polls. Luxon was up 3 points to 26 per cent while Hipkins was up 2 points to 25 per cent.
Speaking to the results, Luxon told 1News it was clear New Zealand wanted a change.
Act had been trending down in recent polls, and the seat share with National had slipped from a majority of 62 on September 13 to 59. The past two polls had the two parties unable to form a majority alone.
Peters told 1News he “hated” the phrase “kingmaker” but would take the opportunity if granted to ensure there was a stable, three-year government. Since 1996, Peters has helped form three governments.
But the key difference this time is he has already spelled out he doesn’t want to work with Labour, leaving his only option as National or the cross benches.
The poll comes just 10 days out from the election on October 14 and days after advance voting opened. Voter turnout this election has alsready been much slower than the last election, a fact Hipkins tried to take comfort in explaining the poll result.
But while Hipkins did his best to give an upbeat response in his penultimate day of Covid-19 isolation, it’s likely he and his colleagues will have been hoping for at least a small bump in support after his form in the Newshub leaders’ debate last week alongside consistent attacks on National’s tax and welfare plans.
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