Chris Hipkins believes he has the backing of the Labour Party caucus as he prepares to jet off to the United Kingdom, just as a new poll lands showing his personal favourability is plummeting.

It comes after the latest Taxpayer Union-Curia Poll showed that while Labour was up 0.8 points to 26.7% – still well below National on 39% and around the 26.9% Labour got at last year’s election – Hipkins’ own popularity has taken a drubbing.

In the Preferred Prime Minister poll, Hipkins has fallen 6.1 points to 12.6%. In comparison, National’s Christopher Luxon fell 1.8 points to 32.7%.

Hipkins’ net favourability has seen an even steeper drop. It fell 16 points to -10%, while Luxon’s rose 1 point to +7%. Just 31% of the poll’s respondents said they had a positive view of the Labour leader, compared to 41% for Luxon, while 41% said they had an unfavourable view of Hipkins, compared to 34% for Luxon.

Asked about the results, Hipkins said he had had a “lower profile” this year following Labour’s defeat at the 2023 election, which also saw him lose his role as Prime Minister.

“We knew that the first 18 months of being in Opposition was going to be the most difficult to keep our profile up and to keep our numbers up. We’re not polling below where we were polling on election day.”

Hipkins said it was just one poll and more negative than others. He said he had the “full support” of his caucus.

“Overall, our goal is to build our support up as we head towards the next election. We will keep working away at it. It shows we have got work to do.”

He also said he didn’t believe people changed their minds about who to vote for within just a year of an election.

Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The polling by Curia took place after Hipkins participated in a number of high-profile interviews where he was questioned about Labour’s approach to tax. He has been open about the party debating the merits of the likes of a capital gains tax and a wealth tax.

But Hipkins said, as “someone who does follow polling”, that “events in the last week bear no resemblance to what happens in polls”.

“It’s a long game we play here in politics... I’d love to be more popular, but at the end of the day I want to win the next election.”

Hipkins said people weren’t “registering much of what the Opposition in politics are saying at the moment”.

He wouldn’t provide a specific Preferred Prime Minister figure that would trigger his resignation, saying that was a “hypothetical”.

Hipkins will this week travel to the UK to attend the local Labour Party conference there and also to meet with members of the new British Labour Government. It will provide the Labour leader with an opportunity to discuss policy options, with Hipkins having a particular interest in artificial intelligence (AI) and renewable energy.

Last year, when Hipkins was in the UK for the coronation of King Charles, one of his ministers defected out of the blue without even ringing him to explain.

But none of the Labour MPs the Herald spoke with on Tuesday expressed anything but support for Hipkins.

Kieran McAnulty is one of the Labour MPs often talked about as a potential future contender for the leadership, despite saying he has no desire for it.

McAnulty said he backed Hipkins “100%” and was the “right person to lead us into 2026″.

“He will. We back him to do that. We are getting behind him to win the next election and this poll doesn’t change that.”

McAnulty said Labour backed Hipkins “whether he is here or visiting [British Prime Minister Sir] Keir Starmer.”

“We will back him now. We back him when he comes back.”

David Parker, who stood down as Revenue Minister after Hipkins killed off his wealth tax proposal, wouldn’t stop to talk about Hipkins’ poll results.

“We don’t pay much attention to those polls,” Parker said as he continued walking down the Labour caucus corridor.

Asked if there would be any manoeuvring while Hipkins was overseas, Parker, still walking, said: “No”.

He gave the same answer when asked if he would be holding any tax meetings next week when Hipkins is away. Parker has been speaking about tax, despite not being the party’s revenue spokesman – though Hipkins hasn’t shown any discomfort with that.

Labour education spokeswoman Jan Tinetti said it was early to be speaking about polls.

“Chris is doing a fantastic job. I am right behind Chris and everything he is doing,” Tinetti said.

“You’ve got to know our caucus at the moment is as tight as I have ever known our caucus to be. It is a great place to be. We are just working to make certain that we are working towards getting back into government again.”

Senior Labour figure Willie Jackson said Hipkins was “going great guns” and then began to speak about the party’s internal polling, before catching himself.

“It might be time we have a talk about our internals, because our internals have been consistent in terms of, can’t say too much because Chippy is quite, he strategises around this, but our internals tells us we are there or thereabouts.

“We haven’t dropped down to 24 or 25% anyway.”

Jackson was critical of the poll, as was Labour health spokeswoman Ayesha Verrall, who called it “junk data” after Curia chose to leave a polling industry group.

Curia Market Research has recently resigned from the Research Association of New Zealand, the peak body and effective regulator of polling companies in New Zealand. However, Curia still abides by the association’s polling code, which sets out best practice for political polling.

It polled a random sample of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Monday September 8 and Wednesday September 10 and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%. 3.4% were undecided on the party vote question.

Jamie Ensor is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team based at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub Press Gallery office.