The Treasury's expecting inflation will crash back down to more normal levels next year.

Budget projections show CPI will reach 3 percent in the second half of 2024, it's currently 6.7 percent.

But unemployment's expected to rise, reaching 5.3 percent next year, up from 3.4.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson says today's numbers show New Zealand's economy will avoid a recession and the Government will return to a wafer-thin surplus in 2025.