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Over the last four days I’ve presented my thoughts on the twenty teams in the four pools who will compete for the William Webb Ellis Cup.
Now it would be very easy at this point to have a cup of tea, a couple of Jammy Dodgers and wait to see how pool play unfolds before previewing the sharp end of this Rugby World Cup stick.
Not on my watch people.
So, using the RWC previews as my base, here’s how I think the playoffs are going to go.
Just to jog your memory, here are the teams I have qualifying out of each pool:
- Pool A – Australia (top) England (runner-up)
- Pool B – South Africa (top) Scotland (runner-up)
- Pool C – New Zealand (top) Argentina (runner-up)
- Pool D – Ireland (top) Italy (runner-up) [Still got them beating the French]
That would equate to the following quarter-final matchups:
- QF1 - South Africa (Winner Pool B) vs. England (Runner-up Pool A) at Twickenham
- QF2 - New Zealand (Winner Pool C) vs. Italy (Runner-up Pool D) at Cardiff … yep, I still got them beating the French
- QF3 - Ireland (Winner Pool D) vs. Argentina (Runner-up Pool C) at Cardiff
- QF4 - Australia (Winner Pool A) vs. Scotland (Runner-up Pool B) at Twickenham
So who advances from quarter-finals to the semi-finals?
For starters, lets pencil in England to win the first quarter-final at Twickenham.
The Springboks lack of game time and match fitness for key players will be found out in the quarters as England ride the Sweet Chariot (and the boot of George Ford) into the semi-finals.
It won’t be all beer and skittles for the home side, with South Africa leading at halftime, but eventually the superior fitness of Robshaw’s men will shine through.
That will set the hosts up for a meeting with the 2011 Rugby World Cup champions.
New Zealand will have no problem overpowering Italy [Yep, still got them beating the French] at Millennium Stadium to set up the tournament’s dream final a week too soon.
The third quarter final will be the best of the lot with Ireland just outlasting Argentina in a stonking (but tryless) old go at Millennium Stadium.
The Irish and Pumas have great defensive systems that both offences will struggle to break down with the difference being the calm, controlled guidance of Ireland first five Jonathan Sexton who will seal the game with a couple of late drop goals.
In the last quarter-final Australia, who have struggled with Scotland in the past, will do so again, but ultimately pull away in the final ten minutes for the victory.
So those results would lead to these semi-finals:
- SF1 – England (Winner QF1) vs. New Zealand (Winner QF2) at Twickenham
- SF2 – Ireland (Winner QF3) vs. Australia (Winner QF4) at Twickenham
In the first semi-final, the game everyone hoped would be the final; England will wilt under the pressure and succumb with scant resistance to New Zealand who will advance to a second consecutive Rugby World Cup final.
The hosts will let themselves down with basic skill execution errors and while the All Blacks will grind out a victory without being overly flashy.
The defending champs will face Ireland in the final, after Paul O’Connell’s men win their second tryless encounter in a row, stifling Australia in manner spookily akin to their pool match at Eden Park four years ago.
That leads us to the final weekend of the tournament and these games:
- Bronze Medal match – England vs. Australia at the Olympic Stadium
- Final – New Zealand vs. Ireland at Twickenham
The dreaded playoff for 3rd and 4th (it determines seedings for the next tournament if you wonder why they play it … nothing to do with TV money, though don’t mind if we do) will be a cracker.
Both teams will go full noise with their team selections and then smash merry heck out of each other for 80 minutes.
Australia will sneak a try late in the piece to secure third place over the most attacking minded England side we’ve seen all tournament.
And that leads us to the final.
I’m a great believer in the saying “in order to win a final, first you must lose a final” and that will ring true for Ireland.
The Irish will have no answer for a New Zealand team whose unwavering focus and execution over eighty minutes will guide them to glory.
Ireland will fail to score a try for the third consecutive playoff game, while the All Blacks will dot down either side of halftime, then rely on Carter’s boot and McCaw extraordinary will to win to help accumulate points steadily through the second half on route to this teams rightfully earned place in Rugby World Cup history.
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