• 288 people have died on New Zealand roads so far this year, as of 9pm December 29, equating to about five deaths per 100,000 population, down from around seven for most of the last decade.
• Top cop says “staggering” drop in road deaths is thanks to police’s Operation Open Roads, which has focused on restraint, impairment, distraction and speed at varying locations over the past two years.
• Every death is a tragedy, but it is particularly hard ahead of the festive season, which is meant to be “a happy and celebratory time”, road safety advocate says.

The annual road toll could be the lowest recorded in 10 years - and potentially the lowest per capita in a century - with officials praising efforts to reduce deaths, especially over the past two years.

But they’re also warning against complacency from both road users and decision-makers as loved ones mourn the 288 people who died on New Zealand roads this year.

As of 9pm, December 29, the provisional road toll was 290, down from 319 last year, 349 in 2022, 300 in 2021 and 307 in 2020, according to Ministry of Transport figures.

That includes two people who died in a multi-vehicle crash near Managaweka yesterday afternoon.

The toll is the lowest since 2014, when 293 died, after which the annual toll returned to the 300s.

Apart from a few occasions in the 2010s, the last time there were fewer than 300 annual road deaths in New Zealand was the early 1950s, after which deaths peaked at 843 in 1973 and remained more than 500 a year until the turn of the century.

This year’s toll equated to about five deaths per 100,000 population, down from an average of around seven for most of the last decade, AA road safety spokesman Dylan Thomsen said.

“[With] how much our population has grown in recent times, it’s actually looking like it’ll be the lowest per capita rate of road deaths in New Zealand since the 1920s.

“So, our best year on the roads in a century… that’s a milestone for us in terms of road safety but, being realistic about it, it’ll mean we’re at a similar level to Australia, and still significantly higher than some of those Scandinavian countries that are the best on the planet.”

There was likely no one reason behind this year’s sub-300 toll - but neither was it a “lucky fluke”, says AA communications, safety and research manager Dylan Thomsen.

Countries such as Norway, Sweden and Iceland have around two road deaths per 100,000 people.

“[And] with road safety, it’s so difficult because you can never really celebrate about a large number of people losing their lives on the roads.”

There was likely no one reason behind this year’s sub-300 toll, but neither was it a “lucky fluke”, Thomsen said.

“There’s never just one silver bullet around road safety, and what we need to improve it.”

Measures included continuing work to make the country’s roads safer, such as installing barriers, good road surface maintenance and even low-cost but effective improvements such as installing signage and road markings.

Increased law enforcement, societal behaviour changes, and a struggling economy amid job losses and cost of living pressures may have also led to a lower toll in 2024, Thomsen said.

“People having less money often means people travelling less, going out less often, drinking less if they are going out. Historically, tougher economic times often do tend to mean less crashes on the roads.”

Police have been focusing on vehicle restraints, driver impairment, distraction and speed to get road fatality figures down. Photo / Duncan Brown

Increased enforcement by police was also a factor, especially around alcohol and speeding, Thomsen said.

“And then there’s a really unknowable factor of, ‘Have we seen people starting to actually make some safer choices and take less risks when they’re driving?’

“I’d like to hope we’re seeing some kind of behaviour change in New Zealand. But that’s really difficult to measure.”

Police had seen “staggering reductions” in death and serious injury in the two years since they began Operation Open Roads focusing on the 80km/h and above roads where 73% of death and serious injuries occurred, Superintendent Steve Greally said.

“New Zealand has traditionally been a very poor performer at a global level in road safety - we’re in the bottom 25% of the OECD for death and serious injuries, which is appalling.

“In the last two years, we’ve changed the way we deploy our staff and got them to focus on those things which we believe through our own analysis cause the most trauma on our road.”

"Staggering" progress has been made, but Superintendent Steve Greally still fears the road toll could plateau around 300 deaths a year. Photo / John Borren

That meant focusing on vehicle restraints, driver impairment, distraction and speed, and “mixing up” where police were deployed to keep coverage broad, and motorists guessing, the director of road policing said.

“It’s basically creating a fear amongst drivers that if they make a bad decision - for instance speeding or driving drunk - they believe there’s a very good chance they’ll be caught.”

His advice to motorists was to make sure everyone was belted up, don’t get behind the wheel drunk, drugged or tired, stay off the phone while driving and drive to the conditions - but never higher than the posted speed limit.

“They’re pretty simple rules, but it’s amazing how many people still choose to exhibit poor and risky behaviours.”

Officers were doing as much and as effective policing as they could, so he feared the toll could plateau around 300 deaths a year if others involved in Safe System road safety didn’t do their part, Greally said.

The Swedish-origin Safe System approach began in New Zealand in 2010 and works on the principle that road systems should be designed to prevent death and serious injury because no one should suffer either because they make a mistake.

“Road safety is a problem for all Government agencies and actually all users of our roads”, the top road cop said.

“It’s not just a police problem.”

Three Samoan RSE workers were killed and three more injured in a multi-vehicle crash on State Highway 1 near Ramarama in Auckland in August.

From July next year the former Labour Government’s blanket speed limit reductions on local streets, arterial roads and state highways will be reversed, with many 30km/h urban roads and 80km/h zones returned to their old 50km/h and 100km/h speed limits under National’s coalition agreement with Act, and as part of the Government’s 100-day plan.

The changes announced in September mean “economic impacts and the views of road users and communities” were considered, alongside safety - which included committing to variable speed limits outside schools during pick-up and drop-off times by July 2026, Transport Minister Simeon Brown said.

Where safe, speed limits up to 120km/h would also be allowed on Roads of National Significance, he said.

Although overall deaths were down, December had been a bad month on our roads, Brake New Zealand director Caroline Perry said.

Four people, including siblings Amelia Stockdale Lamont and Ruben Stockdale-Frost, were killed in a two-vehicle crash on State Highway 75 near Rotorua on December 9.

Flowers on State Highway 5 at Ngongotaha Valley near Rotorua where four people were killed in a two-vehicle crash on December 9, including, inset from left, Tray Dee Wall, Amelia Stockdale Lamont and Ruben Stockdale-Frost.

Two days earlier three people died after four motorbikes and a car crashed on SH1 south of Taihape.

“Every death is a tragedy but it’s particularly hard at this time of year… it’s meant to be a happy and celebratory time for people.”

The charity supported those bereaved or injured by road crashes - trauma that shattered the lives of too many.

“We see those consequences, and it’s not a short-term impact. We’re pleased to see reduced deaths and serious injuries, and we want to keep heading in that direction.

“But we know there’s still hundreds of families this year that have experienced the horrific consequences of [road] deaths, and many more who’ll be experiencing the consequences of serious injuries.”

A survivor’s story

Karaka woman Michelle van Eeden survived, but suffers ongoing back pain and mobility issues after she was struck by a car and seriously injured in 2013.

Michelle van Eeden is one of the lucky ones. Not only did she survive being hit by a car, she defied a surgeon’s fears she wouldn’t walk again.

It was January 2013 when the then 48-year-old was struck from behind while crossing Mt Eden Rd, the impact shattering the T10/11 vertebrae in her back.

But the mother-of-two wouldn’t be among the 253 people killed on our roads that year.

“I think I’mlucky but my doctors tend to say, ‘Well, you’re unlucky that you got hit by the car’. But I’m lucky I can walk, because when I was taken into the hospital, the doctor said, ‘We doubt you’ll be able to walk again’.

“I’ve always tried to look on the positive side. I haven’t been given a death sentence. There’s a lot of people worse off than me.”

The 60-year-old, who lives with ongoing pain and has needed multiple surgeries since her accident, has words of advice for everyone on our roads, especially this holiday period.

Safety first, whether that’s on foot, bike, scooter, motorbike or car.

“You don’t realise [the impact on your life] until it happens, and you think it’s never going to happen to you.”

While loss of life is the most tragic outcome, many more people - just under 2500 alone last year - survive road crashes with serious injuries, upending their lives and costing us all.

The total social cost of road crashes was $9.77 billion in 2021 - 4 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product, according to the most recent Ministry of Transport data.

For van Eeden, the decision not to walk 200 metres further to a pedestrian crossing has left her unable to work fulltime and living with ongoing pain.

The pharmacy dispensary technician was standing on the median strip halfway across Mt Eden Rd while walking to work when she was hit by a vehicle turning right out of the Mobil petrol station.

“I was very winded, I couldn’t breathe. I was lying on the road in pain.”

Michelle van Eeden was waiting on the median strip of Mt Eden Rd when she was struck by a car turning out of the Mobil petrol station. Image / Google Streetview

Doctors from a nearby medical centre came to van Eeden’s aid before she was taken by ambulance to Auckland City Hospital, where a surgeon told her she probably wouldn’t walk again.

“It was an unstable break … when the bones shatter, they can get close to the spinal cord, and if they touch the spinal cord, then you’re paralysed - and the bones were a millimetre away from [the cord].”

She was told if she tried to move, she’d paralyse herself.

“I’d often thought, ‘That would be the worst thing, lying in bed and you can’t move,’ and it actually happened to me. I had to lie flat on my back for two weeks - I couldn’t even lift my head off the pillow.

“It’s your worst nightmare… and [I was] in so much excruciating pain.”

Van Eeden would walk again, after a 12-hour surgery that included the removal of two ribs and insertion of titanium plates, but she endured agonising pain, side effects including vomiting, constipation and itchiness from medication and, later, the intense experience of withdrawal from medication.

“That’s actually worse than the pain.”

Two further surgeries followed, one a year later for a herniated disc also caused by the crash and a 10-hour double spinal fusion surgery in 2022 in connection with her original injury.

“It all relates back to that one accident.”

While the Karaka grandmother-of-one has at times returned to part-time work, she’s been off work for the last year because of ongoing pain when standing for long periods.

“My doctor said to me, ‘Michelle, you just can’t do it’. But what am I going to do? I’m a worker, I love my job.”

Not working affected her mental health, and she hoped to return to part-time hours next year, having already contacted potential employers, van Eeden said.

Her advice to anyone when crossing a busy road was “go to the pedestrian crossing”.

“I’d [crossed] there so many times, and there were cars coming in and out [of Mt Eden Rd] - it was a stupid place to cross.

“You’ve got this life, and then all of a sudden it’s just turned upside down.”

Note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated 290 people had died on New Zealand roads so far in 2024 and this has since been corrected to 288.

Cherie Howie is an Auckland-based reporter who joined the Herald in 2011. She has been a journalist for more than 20 years and specialises in general news and features.