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NZ-EU trade deal will fade away if Brexit wins - economist

Author
Jessica McCarthy,
Publish Date
Tue, 21 Jun 2016, 5:36am
Photo / NewsPix

NZ-EU trade deal will fade away if Brexit wins - economist

Author
Jessica McCarthy,
Publish Date
Tue, 21 Jun 2016, 5:36am

UPDATED 9.33am An economist says Britain's potential exit from the European Union wouldn't be good for New Zealand.

LISTEN ABOVE: Sir Christopher Pissarides talks to Mike Hosking about the economic chaos a Brexit would cause

Britons go to the voting polls this week, with the results expected on Friday New Zealand time.

Lincoln University Agricultural Economics professor Alan Renwick said the insecurity a Brexit would create could damage New Zealand's market.

"One of the big downsides may well be the instability that occurs. One thing markets don't like is uncertainty, and that could lead to financial uncertainty globally, which could harm New Zealand."

Mr Renwick said talks of a NZ-EU trade deal are finally underway, but that would go to the bottom of the pile if Britain chooses to leave.

He said the UK has always been a voice of reason when it comes to trading with New Zealand.

But if they walk away, he said some of the more conservative countries could have greater control.

"The UK has always been an open trading economy, and realizes the benefit of freer trade, whereas some of the other countries have more protectionist attitudes, more concerned to protect their farmers."

Nobel prize-winning economist Sir Christopher Pissarides said if Brexit goes ahead, a two to five year recession looks set for Britain.

Sir Christopher told Mike Hosking it would take up to five years for Britain to implement new trade agreements, and this will cause enormous uncertainty.

"About what the export markets would look like, where businesses should direct their investment, and of course when businesses see that, their immediate reaction is to wait, to reduce and hold back on investment."

He said the reality is with no industry, Britain is no longer well placed to stand on its own outside the EU as it's no longer an economic power in its own right.

Britain sits between giants, with the US in the west, and Russia, China, and the rest of Asia on the East so uniting with Europe is the only way for Britain to maintain any muscle as a economic power, Sir Christopher said.

Castlepoint Fund's Stephen Bennie told Rachel Smalley despite all the hype around Brexit, it could turn out to be a non-event in terms of local markets.

He said it could be similar to the anticlimax that followed speculation about a mass computer failures come the new millennium.

"We ticked over into the year 2000 and, in the end, absolutely nothing happened. I suspect we're going to have a similar anti climax with Brexit and we'll all be left wondering what all the fuss was about."

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