• Forecasters warn expected April rain won’t curb “dire” drought conditions in North Island.
• Rainfall is down approximately 75% in many areas.
• Auckland’s dam levels are at 66.5%, below the historical average of 78.4%.

Forecasters are warning rain expected in the first week of April will not be enough to curb “dire” ongoing drought conditions throughout the North Island and relief might not happen until winter.

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) said a moist subtropical air mass could spell rainfall for some areas but it would not be “meaningful” enough for the worst impacted regions including Auckland, Northland and Waikato.

Forecaster Chris Brandolino said average rainfall amounts were down about 75% in many places from the start of the year until March 24.

Albany on Auckland’s North Shore would have, on average, received 202mm of rain but only 70mm had fallen.

Dargaville would have typically received an average of 185mm but had only received 52mm.

“It’s pretty dire.”

Brandolino said sustained rainfall was required for “meaningful change” in drought conditions.

He said 30mm of rain in 24 hours for three days out of the week “is really needed to get pasture growth and pasture recovery of any significant volume”.

Earlier this month, Watercare’s drought management plan was activated after ongoing dry weather pushed the levels of the Auckland region’s dams down. Dam levels were at 66.5% on Wednesday. The historical average for this time of year is 78.4%.

With areas in Northland and the Waikato also under drought restrictions and nearing the “permanent wilting point”, Brandolino said many people would be hoping April’s rain would make a significant impact.

A drought has been declared in Northland for the eighth time in 20 years as the region dries out, with the Government declaring a medium-scale adverse event

However, he said the chances of that “aren’t exactly great” and there was strong doubt the rainfall would be a “drought buster”.

“We may have to wait until we get deeper into autumn, maybe even winter potentially to see a more profound opportunity for change.”

He said for much of Northland, Auckland and Waikato “very little rain is forecast” with some areas tipped to get less than 5mm.

Brandolino warned that although rainfall amounts may increase as we near winter, these were still expected to be below average.

He said western parts of the South Island were tipped to see the majority of the rainfall.

For the second half of this week, MetService forecaster Juliane Bergdolt said a cold front would arrive today, kicking off the rain in the South Island.

It would bring a few showers to the North Island on March 28.

“Once that clears, we are left with another ridge of high pressure bringing a few showers here and there but nothing that will be significant rain.”

Rachel Maher is an Auckland-based reporter who covers breaking news. She has worked for the Herald since 2022.