Despite there being more than 400,000 security and surveillance cameras in New Zealand and most Kiwis being on social media, a private investigator says it is actually very easy to vanish without a trace in this day and age - all it takes is a digital hiatus, the right skills and people helping you.

Former military and police officer Chris Budge believes these three variables are the reason Marokopa man Tom Phillips and his children Jayda, 9, Maverick, 8, and Ember, 6, haven’t been found after disappearing over a year ago.

Phillips and the children have not been seen since December 9, 2021, and the children’s mum and siblings have faced another Christmas without them. This is the second time they have gone missing in recent times.

Budge, who privately investigated the family’s disappearance, believes there are three possible scenarios regarding their whereabouts.

The most likely was that they were lying low on a farm within 100km of Marokopa receiving help from people they know, with Phillips using his farming and outdoors skills to earn money.

“He’s well and truly established wherever he is,” said Budge. “My gut feeling is that they are on a farm being looked after.”

They could also be travelling around the country, with Phillips working for cash on farms, but Budge said that was less likely as, to get anywhere by ferry or plane, you needed to show identification.

Tom Phillips, 34, and his three children Jayda Jin, 9, Maverick Callum-Phillips, 8, and Ember Phillips, 6.

Budge said the idea they were hiding out in the bush was not completely plausible due to the need for food and the length of time that had passed.

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“You have the ability to go off if you’re capable to build an environment that you can live in, ablutions, close to water supply, out of the weather, warm. Your only problem is food. So that’s one area of being caught out.”

He thought the only way they could be hunkered down in the bush was with the help of someone bringing in food, similar to how the Long whānau, New Zealand’s most remote family who live in isolation on the Gorge River, receive supplies from a benefactor flying in.

“I don’t think you can be totally on your own without some help.”

Budge said there was a chance family gatherings over the holidays could draw them out of hiding or information could be revealed.

“Is he going anywhere near his parents’ place as part of the celebrations? Is somebody going to get drunk and let something slip to somebody... that’s all the police could hope for,” said Budge.

Asked why he thought Phillips had run away again, Budge said he believed it was his solution to family court matters.

“I think it’s his way to keep his family together,” said Budge.

Police and emergency services, iwi and community members searched for the family for 17 days in September 2021 after Phillips and the children first went missing.

Phillips ended up showing up at his parents’ house and was subsequently charged with wasting police resources. His family said he had been staying in a tent in the bush. When he left again in December, police said at the time he was not violating any court orders.

However, Phillips later missed his January court appearance where he was due to face the charge of wasting police resources and police then issued a warrant for his arrest for failing to show.

This is the second time in recent times that Tom Phillips and the children have gone missing. Photo / Supplied

Budge said he thought the investigation would become a cold case in a year’s time and wasn’t sure the family would be found or return home before then.

“They could be living in a house on a farm and they could be playing every day, they could be looking at things on the internet and they could have a self-sufficient lifestyle and not need or want anything else,” said Budge.

“All I’ve really seen is the sad part of life and humans need contact, humans need to be loved and in this day and age those kids have seen the inside of a house, they’ve seen love and they’ve seen good food so at some time something should change.”

‘Worst year of my life’

Jubilee Dawson, older half-sister to the children, said it had been the worst year of her life and all she wanted was to know they were okay.

The last time Dawson saw the children was sometime before the end of November in 2021. She and her sister Storm had taken play-dough and cupcakes over to the children’s grandparents’ place.

“When we went to leave they chased after us and asked us to stay.”

Dawson said the family had taken search efforts into their own hands - including searching the bush, working with Budge and door-knocking around the community - until police instructed them to stop on the basis that Phillips was considered a danger and might have a firearm.

“We would like to know that the kids are okay,” Dawson said. “It would be nice to just know that they’re actually alive.”

Dawson said they were “fairly certain” Phillips was going to leave again and she thought it most likely that he and the children were living in the bush, with him emerging only to get supplies from his parents’ place, or getting help from a relative in Tolaga Bay, near Gisborne.

Dawson said her mum, who was married to Phillips for eight years, was pessimistic about the situation and having a hard time understanding why Phillips would do it.

“It’s hard to see that he is doing this for the good of the kids,” said Dawson.

The family recently put out a heartfelt appeal to have the children back for Christmas and also offered up to a $10,000 reward for information leading to their safe return.

“It would just honestly be nice to know they are okay.”