This summer will be a scorcher.

MetService is forecasting the most severe El Niño in over 20 years.

Past El Niño events have hit farmers hard and tipped New Zealand towards recession.

Dr Kirden Lees of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research says even under a severe event, recession is far from pre-ordained.

"We're hearing a lot of chatter that that means New Zealand will be in recession, and we just don't think that's the case - yes farming will be hit hard, but farming today isn't the farming of yesteryear."

He said farming practices have improved and changed over the years, making the sector more resilient.