Health experts are warning Kiwis to take measures to ensure they don’t bring Covid-19 home with them over the Christmas holidays as experts expect the peak of the current wave to hit late December.

Over the past seven days there has been 40,098 new cases of Covid-19 in the community reported to the Ministry of Health.

The ministry are also reporting a further 35 deaths related to the virus.

As of midnight yesterday there are 514 people in hospital with the virus, including 14 in intensive care.

Of today’s reported deaths, one was in their 40s, four were in their 50s, three were in their 60s, three were in their 70s, 15 were in their 80s and nine were aged over 90.

One was from Northland, 12 were from Auckland region, four were from Waikato, one was from Bay of Plenty, one was from Lakes, one was from MidCentral, three were from Wellington region, one was from Nelson Marlborough, six were from Canterbury, five were from Southern.

Of the community cases, 11,142 are reinfections.

Hospitalisations have increased by 100 in a week.

The seven-day rolling average of community cases has increased to 5721 while the seven-day rolling average of deaths attributed to Covid remains at three.

While the wave’s growth is now tracking toward the lower end of initially modelled estimates, experts are looking to late December as its peak.

If a current doubling time of about four weeks holds steady or slows, it is possible the wave might top out before then – but this isn’t yet clear.

“Whilst the size of this variant-driven wave in terms of infections and cases is uncertain, we do know that it will produce a wave of hospitalisations and deaths as well,” modeller Dr Emily Harvey said.

There are two big variables that could slow or grow the wave ahead of Christmas.

That’s a potential “circuit-breaking” effect of schools and workplaces emptying out ahead of the break, but also an acceleration in cases driven by super-spreading from more social gatherings.

It’s prompted another plea from public health experts for Kiwis not to bring home the coronavirus for Christmas, amid the ongoing risks and unknowns of reinfections.

The surge is mainly being powered by waning immunity coupled with a stew of immunity-evading Omicron subvariants, including BA.2.75 lineages, now accounting for about a quarter of sequenced cases, the similarly rising BQ.1.1, and hybrid strains XBB and XBC.

Reinfections are also making up an increasing proportion of new infections – and some 27 per cent of the cases we know about.

Dr Dion O’Neale, of Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa, estimates New Zealand’s background prevalence rate at somewhere around 3 per cent – meaning that, on average, gatherings of more than 30 people could likely have at least one infected person.

“Case numbers are definitely going up at the moment, and if we all have a lot of indoor parties, we might actually end up driving them quite high before Christmas.”

University of Auckland aerosol chemist Dr Joel Rindelaub encouraged those organising gatherings this month to limit the number of venues, and pick well-ventilated ones.

“If you want to stay healthy over Christmas and see all your whānau, I think it’s also a good idea to wear a mask whenever you’re in crowded places like bars or restaurants.”