A dry start to the year brings water restrictions, fire risk, and potential drought to the Manawatū-Whanganui and Taranaki regions.

Five of the seven districts covered by Horizons Regional Council are experiencing drier weather than average, especially within the past month.

“The prolonged period of dry weather means waterways are reaching the point where water abstraction needs to be carefully managed, especially as there is no significant rain currently forecast,” Horizons group manager of strategy, regulation and science Dr Lizzie Daly said.

Ruapehu had received only 65% of its average spring-to-summer rainfall since November 1, with Whanganui at 75% and Rangitīkei 79%.

According to Niwa, in the first 10 days of February, Hāwera in South Taranaki only had 1% of the usual monthly rainfall.

“Nearly the entire area has had just woeful rainfall in the month of February,” Niwa principal scientist, forecasting and media, Chris Brandolino said.

According to Niwa’s most recent drought index, including data up to February 11, much of South Taranaki and Whanganui were facing “extremely dry” and “very dry” conditions.

In these districts, Niwa recorded between 5mm and 15mm of rain in February compared to a usual average of 50mm. Both areas are on track for the driest February on record.

South Taranaki has had water restrictions in place since January 14. On February 12, South Taranaki District Council urged residents to take the partial restrictions seriously to avoid full restrictions being imposed.

They include a ban on watering lawns, unattended hoses, sprinklers, water blasters, and irrigation systems.

An odds and evens system is also in place, allowing odd-numbered properties to use hand-held hoses for 30 minutes in the evening on odd-numbered days, and vice-versa for even-numbered properties.

Rangitīkei and Ruapehu district councils have also urged people to conserve water.

Fire risk, river levels, and potential drought were also cause for concern.

Brandolino said the river flows in Whanganui and South Taranaki were well below normal.

Daly said it was important to maintain sufficient flow in waterways to protect ecosystems.

“Water is essential for cultural, economic, environmental, and social wellbeing.”

Whanganui District Council was not concerned about water usage at this time, senior water engineer Dave Rudolph said.

“Demand for water remains high but our system is currently performing well and is coping effectively with the increased usage. At this stage, no restrictions are necessary,” Rudolph said.

The primary concern for the Whanganui district was fire risk but, because of the Westmere reservoirs, the council was confident it was adequately prepared.

“We are monitoring the situation and being prepared to implement a staged approach for reducing pressure at major zones, following our water supply contingency plan,” Rudolph said.

The level of dryness meant a single rain event was not likely to improve ground conditions, Brandolino said.

“Ideally you don’t want these short, sharp, intense rainfall events as that tends to accentuate run-off,” he said.

“If you had a magic wand you’d be wishing for light-to-moderate rain to turn around that ship and head in the right direction.”

MetService meteorologist Katie Hillyer said rain was forecast for much of the North Island this week.

Whanganui and South Taranaki would be consistently more sheltered from the rain through the week, but light rain could be expected.

“You’ve got a few distinct periods of rain all the way until Thursday and potentially into Friday,” Hillyer said.

“It’s not going to be anything particularly impressive.”

Tuesday was forecast to have the heaviest rain of the week for Whanganui with between 10mm and 20mm expected to fall, at minimum doubling the rainfall for the month so far.

However, more rain would be needed to improve the drier-than-average conditions.

“If rain does fall in the short term that will help but you really need persistent and regular rainfall to really turn things around,” Brandolino said.

Olivia Reid is a multimedia journalist based in Whanganui.