Health experts are warning Kiwis to take measures to ensure they don’t bring Covid-19 home with them over the Christmas holidays as experts expect the peak of the current wave to hit late December.

The Ministry of Health is due to release its weekly Covid cases update on its website at 1pm today.

Last Monday it reported there had been 34,528 of new cases in the community over the seven days prior.

A further 40 deaths were also reported and 418 people were in hospital, including 10 in intensive care, at the end of the week ending Sunday 04.

Of the community cases, 9099 were reinfections.

While the wave’s growth is now tracking toward the lower end of initially modelled estimates, experts are looking to late December as its peak.

If a current doubling time of about four weeks holds steady or slows, it is possible the wave might top out before then – but this isn’t yet clear.

 “Whilst the size of this variant-driven wave in terms of infections and cases is uncertain, we do know that it will produce a wave of hospitalisations and deaths as well,” modeller Dr Emily Harvey said.

There are two big variables that could slow or grow the wave ahead of Christmas.

That’s a potential “circuit-breaking” effect of schools and workplaces emptying out ahead of the break, but also an acceleration in cases driven by super-spreading from more social gatherings.

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It’s prompted another plea from public health experts for Kiwis not to bring home the coronavirus for Christmas, amid the ongoing risks and unknowns of reinfections.

The surge is mainly being powered by waning immunity coupled with a stew of immunity-evading Omicron subvariants, including BA.2.75 lineages, now accounting for about a quarter of sequenced cases, the similarly rising BQ.1.1, and hybrid strains XBB and XBC.

Reinfections are also making up an increasing proportion of new infections – and some 27 per cent of the cases we know about.

Dr Dion O’Neale, of Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa, estimates New Zealand’s background prevalence rate at somewhere around 3 per cent – meaning that, on average, gatherings of more than 30 people could likely have at least one infected person.

“Case numbers are definitely going up at the moment, and if we all have a lot of indoor parties, we might actually end up driving them quite high before Christmas.”

University of Auckland aerosol chemist Dr Joel Rindelaub encouraged those organising gatherings this month to limit the number of venues, and pick well-ventilated ones.

“If you want to stay healthy over Christmas and see all your whānau, I think it’s also a good idea to wear a mask whenever you’re in crowded places like bars or restaurants.”