Statistics crunched by the NZ Herald data team show there’s been a clear uptick in the number of people recorded as victims of crime as well as a decline in the number of convictions.

“Since Labour took power there has been a 12 per cent increase in reported victims of crime and 25 per cent decrease in offenders arrested and convicted,” NZ Herald head of newsroom data Chris Knox tells The Front Page podcast.

While these numbers could be used to suggest that Labour is soft on crime, Knox notes that crime is always more complex than the topline figures suggest.

“Survey estimate that about 29 per cent of New Zealand adults are victims of a crime in a given year, but reporting on those crimes happens only in about 25 per cent of cases.”

Knox says that not all matters that are reported end in arrests and court action. In fact, over the past few decades, we’ve seen a shift in policing policy, which has had a direct impact on the number of convictions.

The data analysed by Knox dates back more than 50 years and shows that convictions were particularly high in the 1980s.

“During the 1980s, there was a big push to convict people for various vehicle-related crimes. So in 1981, 4.5 per cent of the population was actually convicted of a crime – and most of that was vehicle-related crimes.”

Given the strain this approach placed on the legal system, the approach later evolved.

“Right up until 2005, there was a big tough-on-crime push, which resulted in a lot of convictions for things like public disorder offences. And then, since 2009, there’s been a steady decrease in the number of people charged and convicted, which largely seems to stem from police being given more discretion.”

In stark contrast to the idea that Labour has historically been the party softer on crime, the data actually shows the opposite, with Knox noting that Labour ruled over the period with the highest number of convictions.

“It was probably Phil Goff right at the end of the Clark Government. This was followed by a pretty significant reversal in the trend as soon as John Key came into power. From the work we’ve done, that looks more like it was a police operational decision rather than a politically driven decision.”

So why has there been this steady decline in prosecutions? Is the Government doing enough to help victims? And how has technology changed the information we have on criminal behaviour?

Listen to the full episode of The Front Page to hear more on this issue.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am.

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