Analysis by OneRoof finds it has the most potential to grow.

East Tāmaki has topped a list of 100 “hottest” New Zealand suburbs, with analysis by property website OneRoof showing it has the most potential to grow in value in coming years.

OneRoof and its data partner Valocity deemed the small East Auckland neighbourhood, which borders one of the city’s largest industrial estates, as the one to watch, citing its proximity to a huge employment hub and planned infrastructure improvements as crucial factors for first-home buyers and investors to consider.

Valocity senior research analyst Wayne Shum said East Tāmakiwas more affordable than neighbouring, more high-profile suburbs and was viewed as a stepping stone for families looking to send their children to some of East Auckland’s best schools.

The Hot 100 List and the results of the analysis are published today in the OneRoof Property Report.

OneRoof's 'Hottest' New Zealand Suburbs - Top 10

The 10 New Zealand suburbs that offer the best value to buyers and hold the best long-term growth prospects for owners.

Average property value derived from the OneRoof-Valocity House Value Index, taken on Oct 20, 2024

Table: OneRoof.co.nzSource: OneRoof-ValocityGet the dataCreated with Datawrapper

OneRoof editor Owen Vaughan said: “In a country with more than 2000 suburbs to choose from, we can’t all call on our own personal Location, Location, Location hosts to help us when we’re out looking for houses.”

“We all want to buy at an affordable price and to live in a suburb that’s on the rise. And while prices have softened after 2023′s mini post-slump surge, there are locations around the country that are primed for growth when the market picks up.

“Buyers need to do their research to understand what drives a local market and how it is likely to evolve over the coming years. OneRoof’s Hot 100 list is an invaluable aid for those unsure about the market. It pinpoints the 100 New Zealand suburbs that offer the best value to buyers and hold the best long-term growth prospects for owners.”

Other affordable Auckland suburbs were prominent – Ōtāhuhu, Onehunga, Papatoetoe, Wiri, Māngere, Ōtara, Takanini, Papakura and Pukekohe, in South Auckland; and Henderson, New Lynn, Avondale, Westgate and Hobsonville, in Westgate.

Inner-city suburbs in Christchurch made the top 10, as did Whanganui and Masterton.

OneRoof editor Owen Vaughan: “Buyers need to do their research to understand what drives a local market and how it is likely to evolve over the coming years." Photo / Fiona Goodall

Houses in Waltham, Christchurch. The city suburb rates highly in the OneRoof rankings. Photo / George Heard

The results reflected the changing built environment not just in Auckland but around the country – nearly a quarter of the “hot” 100 suburbs were in Auckland, but Canterbury claimed the next biggest share, with 18 of its suburbs on the list.

Waikato, Wellington and Manawatū-Whanganui were also well-represented.

Absent from the list are the posher, expensive suburbs which often top “hot” area lists, like Remuera, Ponsonby or Oriental Bay.

Shum said the list was for most Kiwis, not the top 10% of earners.

He said the analysis’ key message was people should reassess the more affordable suburbs on the list because while they might not be top of mind, they do have the most potential.

The list was inspired by similar housing market analysis carried out by Australia’s real estate portals. OneRoof wanted to identify the suburbs that had the greatest potential to reward buyers in years to come.

Shum said the team started with 500 or more residential and lifestyle suburbs and assigned scores based on various criteria, including a heavy emphasis on affordability, resilience over the recent downturn and factors like the number of building and renovation consents issued in recent years, mortgage data, amenities, employment proximity, and property price and population growth.

The analysis comes as new house price figures from OneRoof show the housing market is still under pressure.

The nationwide average property dropped 0.7% to $957,000 in the three months to the end of October. The decline was smaller than the three-month drop of 1.1% recorded at the end of September, suggesting the market has finally found the floor.

How Much Have Property Values Changed?

The chart show the change in the average property value in each region and NZ as a whole over the last three months.

Property value data derived from the OneRoof-Valocity House Value Index, taken on October 20, 2024.

Table: OneRoof.co.nzSource: ValocityGet the dataCreated with Datawrapper

Cuts to the OCR and falling mortgage rates are already having an impact on buyer activity. Since the first OCR cut in August, enquiries on OneRoof have risen almost 20%, while agents have noted more people at open homes and increased bidding at auctions.

Six regions recorded quarterly value growth, up from five at the end of September.

West Coast and Southland – two of the country’s cheapest regions for property – were up more than 1%, but the 0.1% lift in Canterbury to $782,000 is more significant for the overall market. The region is New Zealand’s second-largest for sales and has held up well across all price points.

House prices in Auckland dropped 0.8% ($10,000) in the three months to the end of October to $1.279 million, down from the quarterly drop of 1.7% at the end of September and 2.6% at the end of August.

Still dropping but at a slower rate are property values in Wellington (-1.9% to $863,000) and Northland (-2.2% to $815,000). Both regions have been hit hard by the winter slump, with low sales and falling values particularly acute in Kaipara, in Northland, and Carterton and Wellington City, in Wellington.

At a major metro level, only Queenstown-Lakes was up, although the pace of value growth in the country’s most expensive district for real estate has slowed, from almost 3% at the end of August to 0.9% at the end of October.