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Inflation falls slightly second quarter, to annual figure of 6.0 percent

Author
Liam Dann, NZ Herald,
Publish Date
Wed, 19 Jul 2023, 10:35am
Photo / File
Photo / File

Inflation falls slightly second quarter, to annual figure of 6.0 percent

Author
Liam Dann, NZ Herald,
Publish Date
Wed, 19 Jul 2023, 10:35am

Inflation fell slightly in the second quarter, to an annual figure of 6.0 per cent.

The fresh inflation data has been released this morning.

It was hoped the Consumers Price Index for the three months to June 30 would fall from 6.7 per cent and bring some comfort for Kiwis struggling with the cost of living, confirming the country has passed peak inflation.

Despite a shocker of a food price inflation figure last week, economists still expected a solid fall in the pace of annual inflation in today’s CPI data .

The consensus among major bank economists was for a quarterly rise of 0.9 per cent, taking us to an annual figure of 5.9 per cent - lower than the Reserve Bank’s 6.1 per cent forecast and down from an annual rate of 6.7 per cent in the year to March.

“While inflation is dropping back, it is not low by any stretch of the imagination,” Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said.

“Importantly, with strong and persistent underlying price pressures, inflation is unlikely to return within the RBNZ’s target band any time soon.”

ANZ economists expect some big improvements to inflation figures in the coming months as “base effects” such as high commodity prices and local construction costs flow out of the data.

Food prices had remained high due to New Zealand’s poor run of weather hampering production and putting a strain on transport infrastructure, impacting access to markets.

The bank economists were optimistic the situation would improve in the coming months as weather patterns shifted.

Things were “definitely going the right way” they said, noting the increased capacity in the economy that businesses have reported in opinion surveys.

“But there’s a long way to go, and we suspect that squeezing that last excess inflation out of the system could be an uphill slog,” ANZ economists added.

Today’s CPI figure is the “headline” number for inflation and though not a perfect measure, is widely seen as the most credible indicator of inflation.

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