New Zealand’s annual net migration gain continues to dwindle as fewer migrants arrive and Kiwis continue to depart in record numbers. 

Stats NZ provisional data for the year to August also shows a big rise in the departure of recent migrants. 

The net migration gain of 53,800 in the August 2024 year was down sharply on the gain of 67,200 for the July year. 

The year to August saw a net gain of 109,900 non-New Zealand citizens but a net migration loss of 56,100 New Zealand citizens. 

That’s up from the previous annual record of Kiwi departures (55,800) in the year to July. 

The provisional data showed 81,200 Kiwis departed these shores long-term in the year to August (up from 81,000 in the year to July) while just 25,100 returned. 

Annual migrant arrivals peaked at 236,200 in the year ended October 2023 and annual net migration peaked in the year ended October 2023, with a gain of 136,400. 

For migrant arrivals in the August 2024 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 37,000 arrivals. The next largest groups were returning Kiwis (25,100), Chinese citizens (21,800) and citizens of the Philippines (21,300). 

The 134,300 migrant departures in the August 2024 year were, provisionally, the highest on record for an annual period, Stats NZ said. 

For migrant departures in the August 2024 year, citizens of New Zealand were the largest group. But the next largest groups were citizens of China (7,100), the United Kingdom (5400) and Australia (5000). 

On a monthly basis August 2024, compared with August 2023, saw a 38% decrease in migrant arrivals and a 43% increase in migrant departures. 

The long-term average for August years (2002 to 2019) before Covid-19 is 119,900 migrant arrivals, 91,700 migrant departures and a net migration gain of 28,200, Stats NZ. 

That means current annual net migration gains are still well above the long-term average. 

However, economists have noted that the dramatic decline in recent months could put the nation on track for zero net migration next year, if the trend continues. 

“We’re forecasting annual net migration to slow to zero for the 2025 calendar year (which implies that the monthly figures will turn net negative for some of that period), reflecting the soft economy and fewer job opportunities in New Zealand,” said Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon. 

“This marked slowdown in population growth will in turn affect the outlook for the economy’s actual and potential growth rates, the balance of labour market pressures, and the expected tax take.” 

August’s net inflow of 1850 migrants (in seasonally adjusted terms) was the lowest monthly balance since June 2022, he noted. 

ASB senior economist Kim Mundy said today’s data highlighted the risk that we see a sharper decline in net migration than earlier envisaged. 

“We now expect net migration inflows into NZ to slow to around 30,000 persons by year-end. There is also a very real risk that net inflows fall faster and that net [permanent long-term] outflows become more of the norm for 2025. 

“This will erode a key leg of support for the New Zealand housing market, domestic demand and labour market capacity.” 

Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.