New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.7% in the December 2024 quarter, following a 1.1% decrease in the September 2024 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

Eleven of the 16 industries increased this quarter. The largest rises were from rental, hiring, and real estate services; retail trade and accommodation; and healthcare and social assistance.

”Higher spending by international visitors led to increased activity in tourism-related industries such as accommodation, restaurants and bars, transport, and vehicle hiring,” economic growth spokesperson Katrina Dewbery said.

The largest falls were in construction, and information media and telecommunications.

The lift in growth was stronger than most economists expected - with forecasts ranging between 0.2% and 0.5%.

GDP per capita rose 0.4% during the December 2024 quarter, its first rise in two years.

GDP fell 0.5% over the year ended December 2024 compared with the year ended December 2023.

Construction fell 3.1% in the December 2024 quarter, and has been declining since the March 2024 quarter.

”The fall in information media and telecommunications was driven by decreases in telecommunications and internet services, and broadcasting and internet publishing services,” Dewbery said.

EARLIER

It’s not going to be flash, but economists are forecasting that new data will show the New Zealand economy returned to growth in the last quarter of 2024. 

Stats NZ releases GDP growth figures today at 10.45am. 

ANZ is picking the economy grew 0.4% for the quarter. 

“The economy is climbing out of a deep hole,” ANZ economist Henry Russell said. 

He was expecting to see “modest growth” coming off the back of the deep recession - a cumulative decline of 2.1% over the preceding six-month period. 

That two-quarter recession was the weakest economic performance New Zealand had seen since 1991 — outside of the Covid disruption. 

The data should “confirm a gradual recovery in the economy is under way”, he said. 

Economists are picking a range between 0.3% and 0.5% for the quarter-on-quarter growth figure. 

At the lower end at 0.3% – and in line with the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) forecast – ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said the details would likely show uneven fortunes by sector. 

There would be strength in the primary and exports, while goods-producing industries and investment activity continued to contract, he said. 

Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.