Global avocado consumption and import demand are expected to expand further in coming years, creating new opportunities for avocado exporters worldwide - including those here in New Zealand - according to a new Rabobank report.

In its Global Avocado Update 2024, Rabobank said the US continued to be the world’s largest importer of avocados and US import demand was expected to keep growing.

RaboResearch analyst Pia Piggott, a co-author of the report, said US consumption of avocados exceeded 1.35 million metric tonnes for the second time in the 2022/23 season.

Piggot said imports for the 2023 calendar year hit an “all-time high” of 1.26m metric tonnes.

“Over the last decade, we’ve seen the US become increasingly dependent on avocado imports - primarily from Mexico - and we anticipate US avocado consumption and import demand will continue to increase in the years ahead.”

The report said demand for avocados was also strongly growing in several other regions worldwide, increasing import requirements.

Piggot said until 2017, South American avocado imports were primarily dominated by Argentina and sourced from Chile.

“However, in 2018, a combination of stable to lower production and increasing per capita consumption led Chile to rely on imports to meet its own growing demand.”

She said there were untapped opportunities in various South American countries to increase avocado consumption in the coming seasons.

This was also the case in Asia where most countries had achieved double-digit compound annual growth rates for avocado imports over the last decade, she said.

“Chinese import demand, in particular, has grown rapidly, increasing by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% since 2014.

“But despite these high growth rates, per capita avocado consumption remains relatively low, indicating significant potential for further growth.”

The report said avocado imports had also grown in Europe over recent years, with thistrend expected to continue.

Piggott said to meet the growing global demand for avocados, global avocado production and export volumes would also need to continue their recent rapid growth.

“Global avocado exports surpassed 1m metric tonnes in 2013 and 2m metric tonnes in 2018, and we expect avocado exports to exceed the 3m metric tonne milestone as early as 2025.”

Piggott said Mexico remained the world’s largest avocado exporter and was likely to surpass 1.5m metric tonnes of exports in coming years.

“Peru is projected to approach 650,000 metric tonnes by 2026, and we anticipate Colombia will soon surpass Spain and Kenya, securing its position as the third-largest avocado exporting country.

“We are also seeing an increasing number of South American countries becoming significant avocado exporters - like Brazil and Ecuador - while Africa is far from reaching its potential when it comes to avocado production.”

While the prospects looked positive for avocado producers around the globe, to remain profitable, industry players needed to innovate in response to increasingly competitive markets and supply-side challenges, Piggot said.

“The industry’s landscape remains fragmented in some countries and increasing competition and margin pressures will drive consolidation, particularly in certain areas of South America.

“We expect hass avocados will continue to dominate in the near-term, but we also anticipate hass-like varieties, that have higher yield potential and improved efficiencies, will gradually gain adoption in the coming years.”

Avocados: New Zealand update

The report said the 2023/24 season was a challenging one for New Zealand’s avocado producers, as the impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle reverberated through the industry.

Piggot said estimates for the 2023/24 crop showed a 35% year-on-year decline in production, to just under 25,000 metric tonnes, for the July-May year to date.

She said with the cyclone impacting avocado quality, exports for 2023 were “well back” on the previous year, with total volume exports declining 51% year-on-year to around 10,000 metric tonnes; led by a year-on-year decline in exports to Australia.

As for the domestic market, an oversupply of lower-grade fruit had caused retail prices to fall, Piggot said.

Despite this, there were also some bright spots in 2023.

Piggot said in 2023, exports to China grew by 159% year-on-year.

“This is a really positive sign, as we see efforts to build market share in Asia as an essential step if New Zealand wants to become a more significant global player in terms of avocado exports.”

There was also some export growth into new markets such as Canada, she said.

The report said weather conditions were more favourable for the upcoming season. However, Piggot warned margin pressure impacted orchard maintenance, which could affect a rebound in production.

“Looking longer term, significant growth in plantings is expected, and industry forecasts suggest production could rise as high as 75,000 metric tonnes by 2031.”