Shoulder season has long been a dependable travel hack. In return for enduring temperamental weather and fewer big-ticket events, you get fewer crowds and cheaper prices.

The exact timing of shoulder season differs depending on the destination but sits between peak and off season and can last weeks or months.

In Europe, the shoulder seasons are March to April then October to November. Yes, trips involve a little less baking on beaches than visits from May to September but you don’t have to share the narrow laneways and rooftop bars with millions of ruddy-faced tourists.

The strategy, however, may be losing its edge according to data from travel retailer, House of Travel.

Shoulder season predicted to match summer bookings

Travel to Europe during shoulder season is expected to match summer volumes for the first time ever in 2025, said House of Travel CEO David Coombes.

“Our data shows that European coolcations – getaways during the shoulder seasons that offer cooler weather, fewer crowds, and great deals – are already shaping up to be one of the hottest travel trends for 2025.”

Coombes said shoulder season bookings picked up popularity in the last two years. Bookings for shoulder season in 2025 are already 14% higher than in 2024 and 36% higher than 2023, even before accounting for bookings made over the next two months.

Baby boomers and Gen X seek to escape crowds 

Data revealed baby boomers and Generation X were most likely to visit Europe in shoulder season months; possibly because it’s easier for them to travel outside school holidays or across long weekends.

Most customers said the main motivation for visiting Europe outside peak season was the mild temperatures and fewer crowds.

Tourists seek shade from the summer heat while holidaying in Europe. Photo / 123rf

Climate change another key factor

This isn’t the first time someone has heralded the end-of-the-shoulder season hack.

In March, Herald Travel spoke to several Kiwis planning shoulder season Europe trips. Many said they chose the dates to avoid crowds or align with work projects but climate was another major factor.

In January, travel news site and market research company Skift predicted a boom in shoulder season travel as people seek to avoid the rapidly growing tourist crowds and climate change make peak summer unbearably hot.

Other global tourism companies have also gambled on the growth of shoulder season travel. In 2023, European tour operator TUI extended its tourist season in Greece and Turkey because of the heat.

“With warmer shoulder and winter seasons caused by climate change and demand by guests, we might see more of these extensions in the future,” TUI CEO Sebastian Ebel told Skift.