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Felix Marwick: EU-UK relationship reminiscent of a frustrated parent with a recalcitrant teenager

Author
Felix Marwick,
Publish Date
Mon, 27 Jun 2016, 6:58am
Photo / NZ Herald / Supplied
Photo / NZ Herald / Supplied

Felix Marwick: EU-UK relationship reminiscent of a frustrated parent with a recalcitrant teenager

Author
Felix Marwick,
Publish Date
Mon, 27 Jun 2016, 6:58am

Both our Prime Minister and Trade Minister are making soothing sounds about the potential for planned new trade deals in the UK and Europe following the Brexit referenda result, but questions remain over just how plausible they may be.

Both Britain and the European Union are now experiencing a fair degree of turmoil, both political and economic, following last week's vote. Currencies have fallen, financial markets have plunged, and diplomatic relationships are strained as Europe comes to terms with one of its most significant moments in recent history.

In the midst of all of this it is fair to surmise that those in Britain and the EU have far more pressing concerns than signing up to buy our exports.

So while it may be business as usual, in terms of current access rights while Britain's exit from the EU is negotiated, it's probably fair to say new business will have to be put on the back burner until the political dust settles and the new shape of relationships in Europe are formed. In the case of Britain it has to redevelop its trade negotiation capacity, as that had previously been ceded to the EU. With Europe and Britain's markets so intertwined and interdependent, the Foreign Office will likely be busy in its backyard for some time to come. It is, after all, where most of the money is.

Add into this the political dynamic and it becomes abundantly clear that Britain and Europe have a lot to keep them occupied. In the case of the former, Britain has a new Prime Minister to be chosen, with David Cameron's successor facing a lengthy and unenviable task of navigating a path to a new European relationship. There'll be little time for that person to deal with New Zealand concerns - even if they wanted to. For the latter it’s dealing with the loss of one of its biggest members and ensuring none of the remaining 27 members follow Britain's lead. Britain's exit may not be a mortal blow to the concept of European unity, but it is a serious one.

And it's still soon to say what the long term consequences of the Brexit will be given some of the more raw comments made in its aftermath - namely European pressure for a quick UK exit and change of Prime Minister. Currently their relationship seems somewhat reminiscent of a frustrated parent with a recalcitrant teenager. The whole "if you leave, you're not coming back" does carry those sort of sentiments. While it would be scare-mongering to suggest that there's going to be a full scale breakdown of the European political and financial systems, what's been seen in recent days on global financial markets does suggest it would be optimistic to expect wine and roses anytime soon.

Felix Marwick is Newtalk ZB's Chief Political Reporter

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