There appears to be one simple reason why John Key is refusing to include the Red Peak flag in the referendum shortlist – it may win.

When the four potential designs for public consideration were released, the reaction spanned the spectrum from cold indifference to scalding hot scorn. None of these designs – as many have pointed out – actually look like flags.

We have been given the ultimate example of why a committee of people with no design experience should never be given the responsibility of selecting designs. The venerable and wise heads on the flag consideration panel have come out with the same flag twice, a government department logo, and a koru that even the tackiest of tourist shops would struggle to sell.

Against all the odds, a flag with genuine and serious popular support has emerged from this whole shoddy process. It’s not the Laser Kiwi, it’s not even the Hypnoflag - it’s Red Peak.

In the space of a few days, a facebook page in support of Red Peak has swelled to 15,000 members. An online petition calling for inclusion in the referendum has more than 22,000 signatures. Can any of the other flags in contention, barring the current flag, boast the same level of grassroots support?

Despite iPredict currently saying there is a 20% chance that Red Peak will be included in the final shortlist, Key has put his foot down. There is no chance, Mr Key said, that the flag will be included in the final four, as that would simply be too hard for the government to manage at this stage.

He’s relaxed about the final four selected, but of course he would be, as they sate his seemingly enormous appetite for ferns. Throughout this process, Key has consistently lent his considerable political voice to changing the flag, and to changing to a design with a fern on it. The consideration panel had clearly put in a job well done when Key said he would be happy to vote for three of their four options – one can safely bet he didn’t mean the koru.

But flags should not have to rely on a tacky symbol or logo to be effective. As Dick Frizell eloquently put it, you don’t need a picture of Bob Marley to make the Jamaican flag work.

The refusal of Key to allow a popular flag on to the ballot shows this process up as an elite-driven waste of time. What he once described as a process of democratic engagement has turned into a farce reminiscent of an election in China. Voting is encouraged, but only for pre-approved candidates.

What is most likely now is that there will be no change at all, that the mounting disgust at this whole mess will result in few passionate supporters for a new design, and the large mass of support for keeping the flag unchanged. For Key, this will politically be a disaster. He has tied his colours to the mast, but the winds of change have died away and his referendum now hangs limply in the breeze.

There is one potential flag that has excited the public. One flag that has serious popular support. One flag that - as Key said he wanted right at the start of the process - the nation could proudly fly to signify a new era in our nationhood.

Pity it’s not on the list.