The latest Newshub poll is out: National 45, Labour 42, Greens 5, and NZ First 2.

The reason NZ First is two is because they are killing oil in the Taranaki and they got caufght up with the Labour Party and the Green Party, and they are not a party of leaves and all that, and then they threw a billion dollars at the Pacific.

As far as preferred Prime Ministers are concerned, here’s the interesting one. Jacinda 40, Simon 9, Winston 4, Crusher in there at 3.

The fact that Crusher’s there is your next poll and the poll after that and the poll after that. Here’s how it’s going to unfold: once Crusher’s in, the people who support her will go ‘gee, that’s good to see’. She’ll go from three to five to eight.

Then the story becomes when she passes Simon at nine. Simon’s then in trouble, that’s when the rumours start, that’s when the numbers start getting counted, that’s when you’ve got a spill.