Unemployment is expected to be up today, and it's thought to be just the beginning.  

Stats NZ will release the numbers for the first three months of the year around 10:45 this morning.  

The rate for the final quarter of last year was 4%. 

ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking that the labour market tends to lag behind. 

He said that what we’re seeing now is the last bit of a residual strength, but there are signs it will be weakening from here. 

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